As a result, Berkshire’s now sitting on nearly $400bn in cash!

Last weekend, the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ warned again about the current stock market. In an interview with CNBC, he said we’ve never had “people in a more gambling mood than now“. He likened today’s market to a “church with a casino attached“.

A casino! What should I do as an investor if Buffett is correct? Here are my thoughts.

Is there a casino?

Looking around the market, it’s not hard to spot the speculation that Buffett is referring to. Outside of crypto, the two most obvious areas to me are in the AI infrastructure buildout and the space sector.

When I mention the AI buildout, there are two parts to that. There are leading chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron and AMD whose profits are absolutely skyrocketing, thereby justifying much higher share prices (at least in the short-to-medium term).

On the other hand, there are smaller, more speculative stocks that have piggybacked on this powerful theme. For instance, Ceres Power (LSE:CWR) is up 949% in the FTSE 250 in just the past year!

The massive expansion of AI data centres has created a need for reliable on-site power. And because traditional power grids often can’t keep up, companies are turning to fuel cells. 

Ceres is a fuel cell technology company. In this sense then, the excitement makes sense.

However, Ceres is also unprofitable, with just £60m in revenue expected this year. This translates into a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 24.

I found this stock quite interesting last summer at 150p. However, now at 725p, I think Ceres is very much part of the casino that Buffett is talking about.

Speculative space

Space is another exciting growth market that has turned very speculative in 2026. We can see this with the extraordinary $1.75trn valuation that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this summer.

The rocket pioneer now has a division called SpaceXAI, so it combines both space and AI in one investment. Again though, this has driven most other space-related stocks to speculative levels.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is one. As a vertically integrated space company, this is the closest listed comparison to SpaceX.

Hence why the stock’s up roughly 2,431% in three years — including a 21% surge today (8 May).

Rocket Lab is growing like gangbusters. In Q1, revenue surged 63.5% to $200.3m, while the backlog of work grew to a record $2.2bn. It sold more rocket launches in Q1 than in the full year 2025!

The stock has been on my watchlist for some time. However, the forward P/S multiple is around 64, which I don’t think offers me much value. I think I’ll get the stock much cheaper in future if I’m patient.

Sticking to the church

If parts of the Nasdaq resemble a casino, then the London Stock Exchange is still a church, with a lot of value on offer. And perhaps because of my age, I much prefer visiting a quiet cathedral these days to a glittering casino.

So the UK is where I’ll focus my attention in May.

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Aside from the crazy rally, an important question many are asking is if this can keep going?

A crazy ride

I’m talking about Ceres Power Holdings (LSE:CWR). To begin with, let’s consider the big picture. Ceres sits in the middle of two hot themes right now, hydrogen and decarbonisation. Its fuel cell and electrolyser technology is designed to help power industrial sites and data centres with lower emissions.

We’re seeing both governments and corporations refocus on net zero goals, especially given the vulnerabilities flagged by more traditional energy sources in the Middle East. This is one key factor supporting the rally, not only in the stock but also in the sector.

Sentiment alone doesn’t deliver a 1,000% return. Another factor for Ceres has been smart execution. Over the past year, the firm’s begun converting years of research and development into tangible commercial deals.

A major milestone was the ramp-up of partnerships with players such as Doosan and Delta Electronics. With new deals announced regularly, investors are clearly excited about the revenue potential if this trend continues.

Finally, Ceres has been (and still is) a benefactor from the artificial intelligence (AI) data centre buildout. Ceres’ technology is increasingly being positioned as a clean, efficient solution for these sites. Given that many expect large-scale capex spending in this area to continue over the coming years, it looks like a major growth area for Ceres to target.

The outlook from here…

This is where things get a bit murky, from my perspective. On one hand, the long-term story does look compelling. If hydrogen scales the way many expect (and if Ceres continues to license its technology globally) the company could do very well. What I mean is that it has the potential to be a high-margin, asset-light machine. That could mean higher profits, and therefore a higher share price.

On the other hand, there are plenty of risks. Despite the soaring share price, Ceres remains loss-making, with negative earnings and a revenue base that doesn’t reflect the optimism from some investors.

In fact, the 2025 full-year results from March showed the operating loss widened from £31.1m to £47.6m.

The other big concern I have is that partnership deals are great, but the company actually needs to deliver on the promises over the coming year and beyond. That’s no easy feat. Based on the share price move, I think the best-case scenario has been factored into these deals. So if there are some hurdles, the stock could move lower fast.

Overall, I do like the company, but I think some are too optimistic about the revenue potential. Therefore, I’ll only consider buying if the stock returned to a more reasonable valuation.

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What does Ceres Power do?

Ceres Power’s a solid oxide fuel cell technology company. Its ultimate goal is to help sustain a clean, green planet by ensuring there’s clean energy everywhere in the world.

It has a rather unique business model. Instead of building its own products, it licenses its technology to other industrial companies.

What’s driving the share price?

As for why the stock’s hot right now, there are a few reasons. One is that the company has recently done some big deals.

In November, for example, it announced a licensing deal with Chinese firm Weichai Power (its largest shareholder) to help power data centres. Under this deal, Ceres will manufacture solid oxide fuel cells and stacks for stationary power systems in China, targeting artificial intelligence (AI) data centres, commercial buildings, and industrial applications.

Another reason is that sell-side analysts have been getting more bullish. Last month, for example, Goldman Sachs raised its share price target from 530p to 670p (after adding the stock to its European Conviction List in November).

Enthusiasm for AI infrastructure stocks is also no doubt driving the share price higher. Right now, investors are working their way down the AI supply chain, trying to find the next big thing (without much regard for valuations).

Ceres Power vs Rolls-Royce

It’s worth noting that there’s one key difference between Ceres Power and Rolls-Royce: profitability. The main reason Rolls-Royce shares have surged in recent years is that its profits have exploded (this has attracted institutional investors).

Ceres has no profits however, and it’s not expected to be profitable in the next few years. This adds risk from an investment perspective, and means that the share price strength may not be sustainable (and that it may not deliver Rolls-Royce-like returns).

An investment opportunity for growth hunters?

Are the shares worth a look despite this issue? Well, they could be, as a highly speculative AI-related growth play.

But to my mind, they’re very risky. Not only are there no earnings but the company’s track record in terms of growth is quite patchy (last year revenue fell 37%).

On top of this, we have a valuation that’s very high. The price-to-sales ratio‘s about 20 on a forward-looking basis and near 40 on trailing basis (there’s no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as we don’t have any earnings).

It’s worth noting here that the average price target is about 447p. That’s roughly 30% below the current share price.

One other thing worth mentioning is that late last year, the company was the subject of a scathing report from short seller Grizzly Research. It wrote that Ceres has a “flawed business model” and that it expects the stock to “fade away into obscurity”.

Given these risks, I won’t be buying the stock for my own portfolio. In my view, there are much safer growth stocks out there for me today.

The post Up 199% in 2026, is UK stock Ceres Power Holdings the new Rolls-Royce? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

That’s not too shabby considering we’re just four months into the year. And it easily beats the performance of some of the most popular stocks of the last year among UK investors, including Rolls-Royce (-5.2%), Nvidia (+13.3%), and BP (+32.3%).

Even more astonishing, however, is Ceres Power’s one-year performance, which now stands at 933% after the stock jumped 19% today (29 April).

What on earth has sent it stratospheric? And given that it’s still down 55% over a five-year period, might it be worth considering buying now? Let’s take a closer look.

What does it do?

Ceres is a clean energy technology developer at the forefront of solid oxide fuel cell and hydrogen technologies. However, rather than building products, the company licences its IP to big industrial partners, including Doosan (South Korea), Weichai Power (China), and Delta Electronics (Taiwan).

In this sense then, Ceres is a bit like the Arm Holdings of the energy world. When successful, such asset-light licensing models can be wildly profitable and therefore very valuable. The company earned its first royalties last year.

When companies license our technology, they’re effectively bringing Ceres on board as their in-house R&D team. What they’re truly investing in is the ability to stay at the forefront of innovation, which is why we continuously invest in developing and safeguarding our intellectual property through innovation, backed by…the expertise of the world’s largest solid oxide team.
Ceres Power.

AI energy boom

As promising as this sounds, the stock’s almighty rise doesn’t appear to have anything to do with the company’s financials.

Last year, revenue was £32.6m, down from £51.9m the year before. Actual profits aren’t expected by City analysts in either 2026 or 2027.

No, the reason the stock is on fire is due to investor excitement around the data centre buildout to support artificial intelligence (AI).

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index, which is made up of the 30 largest US chip stocks, has rocketed 38% so far this month. It’s on course for its best month in 26 years, since just before the dotcom bubble burst.

Last month, Ceres announced a collaboration with Centrica to accelerate the deployment of solid oxide on‑site power solutions. It said this will enable “fast, scalable deployment of high‑efficiency, fuel‑flexible on‑site generation for data centres, AI compute hubs, advanced manufacturing, logistics and distribution centres“.

Fuel cells can be deployed much faster than traditional options, positioning Ceres as an emerging ‘picks and shovels’ player in the AI energy boom. And momentum-chasing investors continue to lap up these types of stocks.  

Is Ceres still worth checking out?

In July, when the stock was trading at 143p, I said Ceres was worth considering for adventurous investors. I wrote that “the value of its IP may be very underappreciated right now“.

However, with the stock now near 600p, the valuation is a concern. We’re looking at a frothy price-to-sales ratio of 35.

Granted, on a forward-looking basis, this comes down to 19 because Ceres’ revenue is expected to almost double to £60m this year. But that’s still high for a loss-making firm.

Therefore, I think investors interested in the stock should tread carefully.

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However, it doesn’t always have to be like this. Indeed, here’s one stock that’s seen a 500% increase in its share price over the past year. It was one of the FTSE’s minnows. Now (3 April), it’s a much bigger fish. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons behind its growth and consider its future prospects.

Then and now

On 4 April 2025, with nearly 194m shares in issue at a price of 47.9p, Ceres Power (LSE:CWR) just about qualified as a penny share. Since then, its market cap has soared from close to £100m to approximately £650m. Why?

Increased demand for the group’s solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolysis cell technologies is the principal reason.

This comes off the back of huge worldwide investment in data centres. It’s widely acknowledged that Europe’s energy infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the extra capacity needed for AI-related activities. But the group’s fuel cells use hydrogen to quickly (and cleanly) generate electricity and heat via a chemical reaction.

The group adopts a licensing approach by selling the intellectual property rights to manufacture its cells to third parties. Its partners include Shell in India and, last week (26 March), it announced a deal with Centrica, one of the UK’s largest renewable energy suppliers.

A potentially enormous market

In October 2025, the group’s share price received a boost when UBS brought forward its prediction of when the company will break even by one year, to 2026. The investment bank expects the SOFC market to be worth £50bn by 2030, with Ceres Power securing around 10% of this.

However, UBS is talking about breaking even at EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) level. With a post-tax loss of £47.5m in 2025, it’s likely to take at least another year before Ceres Power’s bottom line’s in the black.

However, it hasn’t all been good news. In 2025, Bosch ceased working with the group claiming that hydrogen-to-electricity conversion is not being prioritised enough in Europe. And the company reported a “slowdown in the demand for hydrogen solutions”.

This led to a 37% reduction in revenue for the year compared to 2024. And a £16.3m widening of its operating loss.

On the up

Nonetheless, it looks to me as though the company’s back on track. When its partners reach commercial scale, the group receives a royalty payment based on every kilowatt of product sold. Significantly, it earned its first royalties in 2025.

Although Ceres Power might not be a penny stock any more, it’s still loss-making. However, its capital light business model, in which others take on the manufacturing risk, means it retained a net cash position at the end of 2025. And it helped the group generate an impressive 70% gross profit margin.

The group’s clearly convinced a number of blue-chip companies that its fuel cell technology is one way to overcome current grid capacity constraints. And despite its stellar rally, analysts reckon the shares are still approximately 50% undervalued.

On this basis, despite the obvious risks surrounding a company that’s seeking to develop relatively new technological solutions, I think the stock’s one to consider.

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That sort of fillip on results day is always welcome, though it is actually small fry for Ceres shareholders when compared to the share’s 12-month performance. Over the past year, the Ceres Power share price is up a stunning 458%.

People have been talking up Ceres’ renewable energy potential for years. One year ago, this was not some below-the-radar stock nobody had ever heard of.

So what has happened to transform the share price – and should I still consider buying some Ceres Power shares even now?

Sharp revenue drop

At first glance, it may seem difficult to grasp why the market greeted the results so well. After all, last year saw revenues fall by over a third, to £33m.

Gross profit also fell, the operating loss grew over 50% to £48m, and the company’s cash burn was around £19m.

So, why the investor enthusiasm not only today but also over the past year?

One reason was last year’s start to mass market manufacture of fuel cell stacks based on Ceres’ technology by Korean industrial firm Doosan. That is a powerful proof of Ceres’ technology being attractive.

It also highlights the potential benefits from the firm’s licensing model. Its intellectual property can help it earn royalties, without Ceres needing to spend heavily on making the cell stacks itself. That said, at £110,000, Ceres’ total royalties for last year were modest.

They should grow substantially over time, but by how much remains to be seen. I think that will be a key element in determining a fair share prices for Ceres Power over the coming years.

Taking a long-term view

In a way, that is not new.

Ceres Power has been listed on the stock market for over two decades already. The investment case has often rested on trying to ascertain what its technology might turn out to be worth if it can be properly commercialised at scale.

That has seen it go through some sharp ups and downs. Even after the past year’s boom, the Ceres Power share price is still just a fraction of what it was in 2021 – or 2009, or 2007.

But what has changed in my opinion is that the path to commercialisation now looks much clearer. Indeed, Ceres has already made important steps on it with the Doosan deal.

However, it continues to lose money and to burn through cash. While the technology is impressive, this is a crowded market. In the time it has taken Ceres to get this far, the space has become competitive.

Doosan is only one of Ceres’ partners and it is making good progress with other partners in markets including China and India. 84% of revenue last year was generated by four customers, which is a concentration risk.

Still, the company is moving in a positive direction and may be on the verge of scaling up substantially. That could help push the share price higher.

But those negative cash flows and losses bother me. I would prefer to see a proven profitable business model, so for now will not be investing.

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Keen observers will note we’re still some distance from all-time highs. The current 303p share price looks tiny compared to previous highs of 1,576p in 2021 and 2,612p all the way back in 2007. What’s going on here? And could Ceres Power shares be one of the London Stock Exchange‘s best bargains?

Let’s have a quick refresher on what the company does. Ceres designs solid oxide fuel cells – a form of clean and green energy. They can run on both gas and hydrogen, making them suitable for energy needs today and in the future.

Why have the shares been surging? It’s because of – surprise, surprise – artificial intelligence. The need for vast amounts of energy for AI data centres has pushed up renewable energy stocks left, right, and centre. The shares in another British green energy firm – ITM Power – flew higher in 2025 too.

Perhaps the key detail is the delays for other sources of energy. Wait times for grid connections and delivery of gas turbines are said to be pushing five years or longer. That’s too long to wait for the main players caught up in the AI revolution.

In short, this is an indirect AI play. The expectation is that the brave new world that artificial intelligence might usher in will be powered (at least in part) by forward-thinking energy firms.

All this has resulted in some of the most bullish analyst forecasts you’ll find this side of the Atlantic. Goldman Sachs put a price target of 530p on Ceres Power. If that target is on the money then investors could expect a £10,000 investment to turn into £17,492 in the next 12 months.

Crazy swings

As bright as all that might sound, this is still a pre-earnings company. There is a lot of risk buying stock in a company that hasn’t proven itself capable of turning a profit yet.

One way we can get an idea of valuation with these companies is to look at revenue. Ceres Power achieved sales of £32m inthe financial year 2024. Comparing that to its market cap of £600m gives up a price-to-sales ratio of around 20. That’s eye-wateringly high.

These types of stocks are more likely to have crazy swings in value. It’s true enough for Ceres. Despite rocketing up over five times in value in the last year, the share price is still down 88% from its all-time high. That high was reached in 2007 too, showing the unfortunate reality of anyone who was excited about this tech a couple of decades ago. We’re now 18 years on and investors who picked the wrong time have lost a lot of money.

Ceres Power gets its name from Ceres, the Roman goddess of agriculture. Is that name a portentous sign of future growth in the share price? Could investors be looking at a bountiful harvest once this new technology hits the mainstream? Only time will tell for sure. But I think the stock is worth considering for those aware of the risks.

The post What on earth is going on with Ceres Power shares? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

But a three-fold increase in just a few months? That’s pretty rare! And yet, that’s exactly what happened to Ceres Power Holdings (LSE: CWR), the £720m fuel cell technology company that recently joined the index.

The share price is up over 200% in the past three months, rising from around 100p in mid-September to over 300p today! So what’s driving this insane growth and does it present an investment opportunity?  I had to find out.

A power-hungry partnership

Ceres’ recent fortunes have been primarily driven by a significant manufacturing license deal with Weichai Power, a major Chinese power systems developer. This agreement allows Weichai to produce Ceres’ proprietary solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology for stationary power systems, targeting fast-growing markets such as AI data centres, commercial buildings and industrial applications.

The deal not only strengthens and expands an existing partnership but adds a major global manufacturing partner to Ceres’ portfolio.

On top of that, it positions the company to capitalise on a multi-billion-dollar opportunity in clean energy solutions. But the true value of the deal will only be realised in 2026 — a potential reason why investors are scrambling to get a foot in the door early.

Naturally, all this hype comes with some risks that can’t be ignored. The Weichai deal certainly looks good on paper, but Ceres still faces some real challenges.

For starters, its near-term revenue visibility’s unclear, with FY2025 revenues expected to be flat (or declining). This is due to one-off license fees and delays in revenue recognition. The company also operates in a competitive, rapidly evolving clean energy space where technology adoption rates and regulatory policies can impact growth.

So while the new deal promises growth, investors should avoid pricing in unrealised revenue. The company’s valuation is already sky high as a result of this, which could lead to volatility if growth expectations aren’t met.

The bottom line

A 200%+ price gain’s hard to ignore — growth like that doesn’t just materialise from hype alone. But while there’s certainly an exciting development here, it may be a ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ situation.

Investors should be cautious about the potential of a sharp correction if things don’t pan out as planned. On top of that, there’s broader market risks affecting clean tech stocks, including economic downturns and shifts in government incentives.

Overall, the Weichai deal has been a transformative growth catalyst for Ceres Power but the price now looks overvalued. For investors looking for long-term exposure to what may be a groundbreaking green energy company, it’s worth considering. However, I’d tread carefully and allocate it as a small portion of a larger, diversified portfolio.

Right now, green energy’s facing considerable challenges but I think its long-term prospects remain promising. For those interested, there are other opportunities on the UK market worth looking into.

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My own portfolio is built around FTSE 100 shares, but I’ve been on the lookout for a smaller, faster-growing company, and Ceres is an astonishing stand out. Naturally, that also ramps up the risk.

Ceres shares have the power

It’s a British clean energy technology leader specialising in solid oxide fuel cells for hydrogen production and efficient power generation. Its tech puts it at the forefront of the decarbonisation push, with the potential to bring green hydrogen production costs closer to fossil fuel levels in a few years.

The story gathered momentum up on 28 July when its South Korean partner Doosan Fuel Cell began mass production of solid oxide fuel cell systems using Ceres’ proprietary technology. That was a major milestone for the partnership and suggested that Ceres’ tech is ready for serious commercial use. Analysts expect royalty payments from Doosan to build in 2026.

Then on 5 November, Ceres signed a manufacturing licence agreement with Weichai Power, a global equipment manufacturer based in Shandong, China. The deal gives Ceres a further foothold in Asia-Pacific and could speed up commercial deployment thanks to Weichai’s familiarity with the technology. At least one further licence partner is anticipated next year.

Investment risks and rewards

The potential rewards are massive and there’s an AI link too, as Ceres aims to match energy-hungry data centres with flexible and greener power solutions. With a market cap of just £710m, the opportunity here could be huge.

However, investors would have to be brave to consider buying today after such a strong run. Growth shares can build momentum of their own until everything goes south. Ceres looks completely binary. Either the tech scales successfully, the licences multiply, and royalties flow, or some hitch derails everything. Also, deals with Chinese companies carry risk, particularly around intellectual property. Many Western companies now fight shy of the country.

I think someone investing today should watch for new licence deals and the first royalty revenues from Doosan and others. That’s when this share could move from a speculative spike to a real earnings story. It’s not for the faint-hearted.

Investors might consider buying today, it all depends on their appetite for risk. But they must also accept that the big gains may have already been made, and the scope for big potential losses if the shares retreat. It’s all too much for me. I’m arriving to this party just too late. For now, I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch.

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That’s what recently happened with Ceres Power Holdings (LSE: CWR), up 50% this month and over 100% since early October.

I could curse myself for not buying the shares earlier, but honestly, this lesser-known hydrogen producer wasn’t even on my radar. So why did it just take off and, more importantly, will it keep going?

A clean energy specialist

Ceres Power Holdings is a British clean energy technology leader. It specialises in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) for hydrogen production and power generation.

Unfortunately, I’m not a chemical engineer so I can’t claim to understand much of the details. But essentially, the business is all about decarbonisation and clean energy. In my view, initiatives like this are only going to gain popularity as more nations pivot towards renewable energy.

Despite its small size, Ceres is reportedly at the forefront of this transition, with breakthrough technology rivalling conventional manufacturers in terms of efficiency and cost.

It aims to bring green hydrogen production costs down to $1.5/kg, making it cost-competitive with fossil fuel alternatives by 2026. Considering that high cost is a key issue for renewable energy implementations, that would be a huge win.

But that’s not why the shares soared over 100% this past month. The real win came from a deal with one of the world’s hungriest energy consumers.

Powering AI

Unsurprisingly, the main reason for the boost is linked to artificial intelligence (AI) — in particular, AI in China. Last week, the shares surged after further details emerged regarding a fresh licensing agreement with Weichai Power — its largest Chinese shareholder.

Weichai will manufacture Ceres’ SOFCs and stacks for stationary power and data centre applications in China, directly addressing the massive energy requirements driven by the rapid growth of AI infrastructure.

The ‘powering AI’ narrative, combined with the promise of recurring licensing revenue, catapulted the stock to new heights. It’s now the top-performing stock on the FTSE 250 over the past six months.

So the question is: are the gains now priced in – or could it keep going?

Fundamentals and valuation

The valuation now looks understandably stretched, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.78. That’s very high compared to sector peers but reveals confidence in future growth.

Encouragingly, its balance sheet looks healthy, with low debt of £78m, strong equity, and a growing asset base.

In 2024, revenues more than doubled to £51.9m, with gross profit rising substantially to £40.2m. Most promising were overall losses narrowed to £28.3m from £54m a year prior, demonstrating progress toward break-even as new contracts pour in.

Overall, I think Ceres Power is a growth stock with excellent long-term protentional. However, the best short-term gains are probably behind us. What’s more, the high valuation could lead to short-term volatility.

Still, for investors keen on both AI and green energy exposure, it’s a compelling stock to consider. It’s certainly one I’ll be keeping a close eye on, with an aim to buy in 2026 if the Weichai deal delivers on the hype.

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