This decline is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East and concerns over its impact on global energy infrastructure. That means investors are getting extra jittery about the UK economic situation – in particular, sticky inflation and a weaker labour market.

While nobody likes to sell at a loss, holding on to shares that face structural challenges might do more damage in the long run.

So in this tempremental environment, here are two shares I’d consider avoiding for now.

Associated British Foods

Associated British Foods (LSE: ABF) is a well-established supplier of everyday goods, giving it defensive credentials. Prior to Covid, it enjoyed 20 years of unbroken dividend increases, making it attractive to income investors.

But disappointing festive trading in 2025 led to a profit warning, putting the share price under severe pressure.

Recent earnings reports reflect a struggle to maintain volume growth in a cost-cutting environment. So even with a decent dividend history, sustainability is now questionable. Not ideal for for those eyeing long-term dividend returns.

Of course, this means the valuation is weakening as analysts downgrade profit forecasts, which could offer a cheap entry point for value hunters.

The primary risk is its heavy reliance on consumer discretionary spending. With inflation still tightening consumer’s wallets, traditional retail faces a difficult road to recovery.

Endeavour Mining

Mining stocks are often treated as safe havens, but Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV) tells a different story. Its fortunes (and share price) exploded recently inline with a rallying gold price. So long as gold remains strong, it could keep growing.

But the firm has seen high volatility as geopolitical instability ripples through the commodity markets.

From a financial standpoint, it’s doing well but rising costs are a concern. Subsequently, the market has responded with caution, which naturally has hit the share price.

On top of that, the dividend story has been erratic, largely because management is currently prioritising capital preservation and debt reduction over shareholder payouts.

So now we have a company that relies heavily on operational stability in politically sensitive regions. That’s not exactly a low-risk investment. If gold demand softens, it could all come tumbling down like a house of cards.

What are some better options?

Avoiding these stocks isn’t about panicking, it’s about recognising that the capital might be better deployed elsewhere. Both ABF and Endeavour Mining face specific pressures that could persist for some time, whether weak retail demand or operational hurdles in volatile regions.

Keeping your money tied up in underperforming cyclical assets during a market downturn is a classic investing trap.

Rather than clinging to stocks that are under water, shifting toward more defensive, reliable options might be worthwhile. Consider utility companies like SSE and National Grid, or blue-chip pharmaceutical giants such as AstraZeneca. They look more stable than retail and mining stocks right now.

These firms typically offer more consistent dividend payouts and possess the ‘defensive moats’ necessary to weather economic storms.

By strategically allocating capital into more resilient sectors, you can safeguard a portfolio while waiting for the market outlook to improve.

The post 2 UK shares to consider avoiding as the FTSE 100 extends losses appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

• Record adjusted EBITDA of $880m.
• Record free cash flow of $613m.
• Net cash up to $405m.

This certainly looks like a cash cow right now. But with Endeavour shares up 72% over the past five years, the question has to be asked: how long can it last?

Surging cash returns

The huge amounts of cash enriching the Endeavour balance sheet bode well for the company’s Assafou development project. And the company says it should help boost shareholder returns.

We’ve seen $1.6bn returned over the past five years. And management now expects total returns to exceed $2bn between 2026 and 2028. Share buybacks have helped top that up, with $30m in the first quarter — and $54m year to date, at the time of the results.

All this, however, is based on a short four-word proviso, but one that seems critical — “at prevailing gold prices“.

So is an investment in Endeavour simply a bet on the price of gold? Looking at how things have gone in the past few years, I find it hard to see it any other way. In fact, Endeavour Mining shares have climbed 119% in the past 12 months, with gold actually up just 38%. It looks to me like there’s a few more years of gold valuation already built into the share price.

Worth the premium?

Even with the shares so far ahead of the metal over 12 months, buying a gold miner might still be a good move. If some of the recent gains are used to significantly grow mining capacity — as seems to be the plan here — a buy now might secure higher longer-term returns, even if the gold price falls back.

And on the production outlook, CEO Ian Cockerill told us:

At Assafou, the recently announced [Definitive Feasibility Study] confirmed the scale and quality of this potential cornerstone project that underpins our organic growth to 1.5 million ounces by 2030.

That’s a lot of gold. And using current profits to secure the supply could turn out to be a smart long-term move.

So what’s the verdict?

I’ve never invested in gold mining shares. And I think to do it successfully requires the ability to work out how to hedge current profits and expenditure against potential long-term prices. Most investors in my experience, however, tend to just jump in as a play on the gold price — which might still work out well.

Once global fears subside, will gold prices decline? I strongly suspect so. And I see a decent chance Endeavour shares — along with other gold miners — could go South too. I reckon most investors should consider seeking lower risk elsewhere.

The post As Endeavour Mining shares jump 7% on Q1 results, is this a way into the gold rush? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

What’s more, with the Footsie’s large exposure to HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) stocks, now could be a good time to consider investing closer to home. Let’s explore this further.

Back in fashion

Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs identified a trend among its clients of moving out of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks towards those with asset-heavy balance sheets. Fears that tech sector valuations were becoming stretched is an obvious reason for the change of emphasis.

But owning expensive assets also acts as a barrier to new entrants. This could explain why earlier this year, the FTSE 100 hit a series of record highs. And the recent pullback in the index as a result of the conflict in the Middle East could be a buying opportunity to consider.

“After more than a decade of under‑investment (particularly in Europe), corporates are shifting decisively back toward physical assets.”

Goldman Sachs

One FTSE 100 company that owns plenty of assets is Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV), operating five gold mines in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Cote d’Ivoire. And with a combined expected life in excess of 10 years, there’s plenty of highly valuable precious metals still ready to be brought to the surface.

Of course, mining is operationally challenging. Bad weather, strikes, and equipment failure are just three reasons why production could be interrupted. There are also political risks associated with doing business in West Africa. Burkina Faso’s military leader recently said in a TV interview that “democracy is not for us”.

Despite these challenges, the stock’s delivered some impressive gains over the past year or so. Since the start of January 2025, Endeavour Mining’s share price has rocketed 230% due to a soaring gold price. It means a £500 investment made on 1 January 2025, is now (21 April) worth £1,659. That’s an incredible profit of £1,159.

Include the dividends of $2.02 (£1.50) a share and the gain becomes £1,210 (242%).

Could this amazing run continue?

If the most optimistic analyst is correct, a £500 investment today could grow to £602 within 12 months. But the consensus is that the group’s shares are fairly priced.

Since achieving an all-time high in January, the gold price has slipped back by around 17%. Reduced expectations of US interest rate cuts are to blame.

But many of the world’s central banks are still buying gold. Its reputation as a safe haven makes it particular attractive during times of economic uncertainty. Analysts are expecting up to 800 tonnes to be bought in 2026. In March, China recorded its 17th consecutive month of an increase in its gold stockpile.

A number of banks are forecasting the price of the precious metal to reach $6,000/oz this year. It’s currently trading at around $4,800. Forecasts beyond this period need to be taken with a pinch of salt but I’ve seen one prediction that it could reach $10,000 by 2036.

Against this backdrop, along with its strong balance sheet and one of the industry’s lowest costs of production, I think Endeavour Mining remains a stock to consider by long-term investors as part of a diversified portfolio.

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But do they tell us anything we don’t already know?

Easy peasy

On the one hand, being the boss of Endeavour Mining is probably among the easiest FTSE 100 jobs at the moment. The soaring gold price means the group’s revenue and earnings are going up without Ian Cockerill — or his management team — having to do anything different.

Indeed, a look at this morning’s press release shows 2025 was a record-breaking year with free cash flow of $1.16bn, a 269% increase on 2024. As a result, the group was able to reduce its net debt by $416m.

Impressively, adjusted earnings per share increased by 246% to $3.23. Proudly, the group noted that it had now met guidance during 12 of the past 13 years. And with shareholder returns reaching $435m, another record was broken during the year.

However, given that gold soared 60% during 2025, such an impressive performance was entirely predictable. The business is, literally, a gold mine.

But accounts are backwards looking. They tell us what’s happened rather than what will (or could) occur in the future. In some respects, the publication of the group’s 2025 numbers is largely irrelevant. We all knew they’d be good.

Yet this year could be even better. Since the start of 2026, the price of the precious metal has risen 18%. If it remains at this level (or goes higher), goodness knows how much cash Endeavour Mining will be able to generate.

Huge challenges

From an operational perspective, nothing’s really changed though. The industry remains one of the most challenging around. The group’s detailed assessment of the potential issues that it faces — things like the weather, natural disasters, strikes, changes in legislation, and political instability to name just a few — reminds us that investing in the sector is incredibly risky.

And, of course, the price of gold could fall. Although global uncertainty has driven precious metals prices higher, they could easily drop if things start to calm down. Endeavour Mining’s share price is then likely to decline sharply.

But gold markets thrive on uncertainty. Prior to this week’s events in the Middle East, with gold changing hands for around $5,000 an ounce, most economists were predicting further modest rises. Now, there’s talk that $6,000 could be in sight. And there’s no immediate sign that the rally’s coming to an end.

Demand from the world’s central banks remains strong and this week’s steep rise in energy prices could feed through into higher inflation if the conflict in the Middle East persists. Traditionally, gold has been seen as a hedge against rising prices. For those investors who are comfortable with the level of risk, I think Endeavour Mining’s still a stock to consider given what’s happening in the world at the moment.    

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Soaring gold and silver prices are behind this incredible run. But could it last throughout 2026 or is the bubble about to burst? Let’s take a closer look.

All that glitters

The first thing to note is that both companies have different exposures to these two metals. Endeavour Mining produces only gold from its five mines in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal. During the nine months ended 30 September 2025, it mined 911koz (thousand ounces).

Fresnillo claims to be “the world’s leading silver producer” and one of Mexico’s largest gold miners. Over the same period, it produced roughly half as much gold and 35,429koz of silver from its eight facilities.

But over the past 12 months or so, this distinction hasn’t been that important. Since the start of 2025, both gold and silver prices have rocketed – by 75% and 210%, respectively — increasing earnings for these miners without them having to do anything different. Indeed, Fresnillo produced 11.7% less silver in the first six months of 2025 than it did a year earlier, yet its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) more than doubled.

To further illustrate the impact of these favourable market conditions, Fresnillo says higher metals prices accounted for 69% of the $630m of extra gross profit in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.

It also means everything under the ground is worth a lot more than previously.

Can it last?

But going forward things might be different.

Historically, although silver and gold prices tend to move in tandem, the former is often more volatile. And the price forecasts for the two suggest there’s more optimism surrounding gold. Looking at the predictions from analysts employed by the major banks, none are forecasting a significant price drop from its current level. Most market specialists are expecting a price of around $5,000/oz (at 22 January, it was approximately $4,830) by the end of 2026. And I can see why the gold price is predicted to go higher. It retains its status as a ‘safe haven’, which means current geopolitical uncertainty is pushing its price higher.

By contrast, predictions for silver prices don’t appear to be as optimistic. In fact, some analysts are forecasting a drop.

Of course, nobody really knows for sure, which makes the mining sector more risky than many others. To add to the uncertainty, both Africa and South America have reputations for political instability, as well as volatile currencies. 

But as long as an investor is aware of the potential risks should metals prices fall or production be disrupted as a result of one of the many operational challenges, I think both are worth considering. However, I’m leaning more towards Endeavour Mining.

In theory, Fresnillo offers some diversification through its exposure to two precious metals but I think the gold price is likely to remain higher for longer. Demand from the world’s central banks is a key driver with the dollar appearing to fall out of favour.

Endeavour Mining also claims to have the third-lowest costs in the sector, which means it should do better relative to most of its closest rivals.

The post Up 170% and 470% in a year, will these 2 red-hot FTSE shares soar again in 2026? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Large operational leverage

First up is Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV). It’s one of the largest gold producers in West Africa, with core operations in places like Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. Naturally, the gold that it produces is worth a lot more now than it was a year ago. This is reflected in the share price’s 171% gain over the past year.

This rocketship has outpaced even the move higher in the precious metal. This is because the company benefits from operational leverage. What I mean is that with elevated prices, its cash flow and earnings improve because the increase in revenue isn’t always matched by equivalent increases in costs. If the price of gold jumps 10% tomorrow, revenue rises by 10%, but mining costs haven’t changed.

Of course, the risk is that if the gold price crashes in the future, Endeavour’s fixed costs will be hard to cut. So that’s where the firm could lose money. This volatility and uncertainty are why some investors are very cautious about buying commodity stocks. Yet, from my perspective, gold could keep rallying amid geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates, and investor demand for a safe haven.

Endeavour is well set to further capitalise on any price increase, with a diversified portfolio of producing mines and growth projects in West Africa. This is a good mix of existing revenue generators and new potential options.

The silver giant

Another idea is Fresnillo (LSE:FRES). It’s widely regarded as the world’s largest primary silver miner, while also producing gold. As a result, it has benefitted from the move in silver prices, again via the operational leverage I spoke of earlier. Thanks to this, the share price is up a whopping 486% in the last year.

The interim financial results from last summer showed a 160.7% surge in gross profit. When the full-year results come out, I’d expect profit to have increased even further, given the rise in precious metals prices since then. Income investors are also driving the share price due to increased dividend payouts. For example, the interim results confirmed a dividend of $0.208 cents per share, totalling $153.3m. For perspective, the dividend from H1 2024 totalled $47.2m.

Looking ahead, the company is well-positioned to continue growing if gold and silver continue to rise. Due to Fresnillo’s size and scale, it can capture a large share of the benefits from rising prices.

The company now has a price-to-earnings ratio of 139. This is very high and could reflect an overvalued stock at risk of a correction. Another concern is the large exposure it has to Mexico, which is subject to regulatory, tax and political uncertainty.

Even with that worry, I think both stocks could do well if precious metal prices keep soaring. Therefore, they could be worth considering for investors looking for exposure to this theme.

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So if an investor split £5,000 equally among these three stocks (33.3% each) at the beginning of the year, what would it be worth now?Let’s break it down.

Crunching the numbers

Split equally, £5,000 becomes about £1,666.67 in each stock at the start of the year.​ A 367% gain in Fresnillo turns that into about £7,777.78. A 178% gain in Airtel Africa turns £1,666.67 into about £4,629.63, and a 140% gain in Babcock translates into about £4,000.

Add it all together, and the portfolio would now be worth around £16,400. Another way to look at it, is to say the combined average growth of the three stocks is 228%. That’s £5,000 + 228% = £16,400.

A profit of £11,400 in just one year from such a small initial investment is almost unheard of. But it’s fair to say these three stocks each enjoyed unprecedented growth in 2025. In hindsight, they’d have been great buys — but there’s no promise they’ll do that again.

So what could change in 2026 and, more importantly, which stocks could benefit?

Winds of change

2026 is gearing up to bring several key macro changes to the UK stock market. Critically, easing inflation and gradual rate cuts are setting the scene for investors to shift their focus. With the dominance of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and US mega-caps flagging, we could see a surge in cyclicals, rate-sensitive stocks and AI adopters (rather than enablers).

Promising areas to watch include energy transition, utilities and digital infrastructure (particularly AI). Equally, companies that provide the structural support for these industries could benefit too, such as copper and lithium miners.

One stock I’ve got my eye on is Endeavour Mining (LSE: EDV).

Metals still in play

Precious metals miners still offer substantial operational leverage to gold and silver prices, which have seen record or near‑record levels in 2025 and have triggered earnings upgrades across the sector.

Unlike Fresnillo, Endeavour still looks relatively well-valued with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24. With gains that have already outpaced gold’s rise, it exhibits high leverage to the underlying commodity cycle.

Brokers highlight that when the metal price runs, geared producers’ earnings and cash flows can inflect sharply, creating scope for large share price moves. If it achieves expected production increases in 2026, its forward P/E could drop from high teens to single digits.

My verdict

While Endeavour shows a lot of promise in 2026, it isn’t without risk. As a miner, it operates in politically- and operationally-challenging regions, so there’s material risks around cost inflation, safety, ESG and localised risk. And if interest rates fall faster than expected, investors may move out of commodities, hurting the gold price — and Endeavour’s profits.

Still, the overall picture paints a positive outlook for the stock, so I think it’s worth considering. Investors looking to add income stability and diversification to a portfolio may also want to consider a renewables-focused and dividend-strong utility play like National Grid.

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Take the following couple of shares: Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV) and AJ Bell (LSE:AJB). I’m targeting at least one of these mid-cap shares for my portfolio when I next have money to invest.

Want to know why? Read on.

Striking gold

Gold stock Endeavour’s share price has leapt 134% in 2025, driven by a buoyant metal price. I think it can keep going as bullion demand shows no signs of slowing — latest World Gold Council (WGC) data showed holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rise for their sixth straight month in November.

The yellow metal was trading around $2,640 an ounce just a year ago. Now it’s at $4,200 and blasting back towards October’s high of $4,381, a record that’s likely to fall sooner rather than later.

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have tipped prices of $5,000 by next year. This is a realistic target, in my view, given 2025’s price action. Enduring factors like interest rate cuts, poor economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and US dollar weakness also support the case for more price gains.

I like the idea of buying gold stocks over physical metal or a gold-tracking ETF. This strategy exposes investors to mine production issues that can smack profitability. Gold producers also carry leverage, meaning their prices can fall more sharply if the metal drops.

But the leverage effect works both ways, and in bull markets this can ignite prices as we’ve seen recently. Endeavour’s share price gains have dwarfed gold’s 60% rise in 2025.

The FTSE 250 miner’s earnings are tipped to soar this year and next, helped by steps to ramp up gold production. This pushes its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 times for 2025 to a bargain-basement 7.9 for 2026.

Another top stock

AJ Bell doesn’t offer the same sort of attractive value on paper. Though annual earnings are tipped to grow, the P/E multiple remains elevated on paper at 17.9 times.

A valuation like this can invite price weakness when news flow is anything but exceptional. This is the position the financial services provider found itself on Thursday (4 December). Despite releasing record, forecast-beating results for last year, and announcing a £50m share buyback, AJ Bell dropped as it said higher investment would hinder margins this year.

I personally believe this pullback represents an attractive dip-buying opportunity. The company’s shares remain 10% higher than they were at the start of the year. I expect them to continue rising, as an ageing UK population and the growing importance of financial planning drive its revenues up.

AJ Bell’s customer numbers leapt 19% last financial year, to 644,000. The business could also gain from upcoming Cash ISA changes, as investors look elsewhere for tax-efficient products.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Though it faces competitive pressures, I’m optimistic the FTSE 250 company has what it takes to capitalise on this booming market, making it top stock to consider.

The post 2 incredible FTSE 250 shares I can’t wait to buy! appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Lately, I’ve written extensively about the benefits of defensive shares during periods of market instability. However, there are a few growth stocks that could also benefit.

Naturally, gold and precious metal miners are well-positioned, as these commodities are seen as safe havens when markets wobble. We’ve already seen this effect drive up the price of Fresnillo this year. However, with the price now 47.5 times earnings, it might already be overvalued.

Fortunately, there’s a small gold miner on the FTSE 100 which might still be catching up. If so, it could present a compelling growth opportunity.

Impressive performance

With a moderate £7.7bn market-cap, Endeavour Mining‘s (LSE: EDV) a small player next to Fresnillo. It’s also up only 114% this year compared to Fresnillo’s astounding 262% gain.

That leaves it with more breathing space for extra growth if gold keeps rising. At around 20 times earnings, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio’s only slightly above the FTSE average.

Looking at the numbers, Endeavour has demonstrated exceptional operational and financial execution throughout 2025. In the first nine months of the year, it produced 911,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of just $1,362 per ounce – meaning at current gold prices of around $4,077, the company generates roughly $2,715 in profit per ounce.

Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA has surged 110% to $1.634bn, with adjusted net earnings rocketing 375% to $556m. Most impressively, free cash flow totalled a stunning $680m through September, representing a 1,411% year-on-year increase.

Unsurprisingly with those numbers, its balance sheet is rock solid. Net debt stands at just $678m, with leverage at merely 0.2 times adjusted EBITDA – significantly below the company’s 0.5 times target. The profit growth has helped drive dividend increases, with its yield now up to 3%. 

It’s an impressive performance from a company that only joined the FTSE 100 in June 2024.

Risks

As with any investment, it’s critical to assess the risks. In the case of Endeavour Mining, regional and political volatility’s a key concern due to its operations in unstable parts of West Africa.

This year, Burkina Faso nationalised certain mining assets while Guinea and Mali made regulatory changes affecting Endeavour Mining’s operations. These geopolitical risks could disrupt production, impose higher taxes, or even result in partial asset loss. 

Additionally, if gold prices collapse from current highs, the company’s generous dividend would come under pressure.

Final thoughts

For a few hours last week, I really thought the AI bubble was just fear-mongering. But it seems even Nvidia’s exceptional performance isn’t enough to keep an oversaturated market climbing. When taking into account additional factors such as US debt, tariff concerns and geopolitical risks, I think gold will keep climbing for some time still.

For investors looking for exposure to rising gold prices without holding physical gold, a stock like Endeavour may be worth considering. While it faces regional- and sector-specific risks, the combined income potential and low valuation make it highly attractive, in my opinion.

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Given this, investors might see a chance to participate in what has been an unusually strong growth story over the last 18 months. And there are lots of potential ways to do so.

Gold ETFs

One strategy is buying shares in an asset that aims to track the price of gold, such as the iShares Physical Gold ETC. And I think there’s actually a lot to like about this approach. 

Warren Buffett points out that gold is an unproductive asset. Someone who buys a kilo of gold today will have a kilo of gold in 2055 and it won’t have generated any cash along the way. 

That’s true – a block of gold isn’t going to start making products or providing services. But the chances of it going away are close to zero and that’s not true of a number of companies.

With that in mind, I think gold ETFs are worth considering. For investors just wanting to speculate on the price of gold, they’re a pretty straightforward option. 

Mining companies

For investors looking for a bit more action, shares in gold mining companies could be worth considering. One that’s listed in the UK is Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV). 

Gold miners can be riskier than ETFs and Endeavour is an extreme example. Its operations across Africa can create difficulties as governments want to control assets on their lands.

The big advantage, though, is that they’re a lot cheaper to run. That allows it to extract gold at a lower cost than other producers, meaning it stands to benefit more from rising prices. 

Given this, investors with a bullish view on gold prices might considering buying Endeavour shares. The stock is down 10% this week, but its cost advantage hasn’t gone anywhere.

Exploration

A third strategy is to look at stocks like Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV). The company doesn’t operate mines, but it provides financing in exchange for a share of what the mine produces.

There’s a lot to like about this model. Most obviously, it avoids the high capital requirements associated with mining and generates a revenue stream without the associated costs. 

It doesn’t entirely eliminate the risk of operational issues. If a mine Franco-Nevada has a stake in has to pause production for whatever reason, the firm makes nothing until it resumes.

Franco-Nevada, however, owns interests in hundreds of mines around the world. So while the threat of an operational problem isn’t zero, a diversified portfolio of assets helps limit the overall risk.

Gold prices

The main force driving gold prices recently has been the threat of US dollar debasement. And that’s also one of the biggest risks to the stock market as a whole at the moment. 

Investors who expect the rally to continue have a number of choices. An asset tracking the price of gold is relatively simple, whereas miners offer more risk for more potential reward.

It’s easy to overlook royalty companies like Franco-Nevada in favour of producers. But I think its low capital requirements can make the stock a very attractive option to consider.

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