Could Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) stock be a good option for my portfolio after its 9% fall on Thursday (30 April)? Let’s discuss.

The bull case for Meta stock

At first glance, Meta has a lot going for it right now. For a start, there’s a high level of growth. For the first quarter of 2026, the company’s revenue amounted to $56.3bn, up 33% year on year. Meanwhile, net income was $26.8bn, up 61%. Second, we have profitability. Last year, the company’s return on capital employed was about 26%, which is high.

Additionally, we have a founder-led company. History shows that these are often good investments in the long run because founders tend to make decisions with long-term growth in mind.

I’ll point out here that CEO Mark Zuckerberg has shown the ability to adapt to technological shifts successfully (eg Facebook’s shift to mobile). He’s also shown the ability to buy good companies cheaply (eg Instagram and WhatsApp).

Finally, there’s the fact that the company’s already using artificial intelligence (AI) very effectively. Not only has the technology improved ad performance but it has also enhanced engagement with platform users.

It’s worth noting that looking ahead, Zuckerberg has big plans on the AI front. “We’re on track to deliver personal superintelligence to billions of people,” he said in the Q1 earnings.

As for the valuation, it looks very reasonable. After the recent share price fall, the forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only 22.

Multiple red flags?

Digging deeper though, there are a few issues with this Magnificent 7 company from an investment perspective. One is the fact that the company’s spending an enormous amount of money on AI.

In its earnings call this week, it said that total expenses for the year are expected to be $162bn-$169bn. That’s far more than the company made in profit last year (its net profit was about $60bn).

Can we be sure that this spending will pay off? No, and that’s why the stock tanked on Thursday – there’s quite a bit of uncertainty here.

Another issue is the business model. Today, Meta’s business model is mainly built around serving up ads to ‘doom scrollers’. I’m not convinced that this is a strong business model. To my mind, companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft have far better business models (note that all of these companies offer cloud computing services to businesses and Meta doesn’t).

Finally, broker sentiment isn’t the strongest at the moment. While the average price target ($855) is well above the current share price, brokers have been lowering their price targets since the Q1 earnings report. That’s not ideal – this kind of activity tends to put pressure on a stock.

Will I buy?

Weighing this all up, I won’t be buying Meta stock for my SIPP right now. It could end up doing well in the years ahead, but to my mind, there are better opportunities in the market for me right now.

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Sales increased 33% and earnings per share were up 63%. So what did the stock market not like – and what should investors do?

Earnings overview

There are a few things investors need to note about Meta’s Q1 earnings. Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.

The 63% increase in earnings per share was driven partly by a tax benefit, which I don’t expect to repeat. But there’s plenty to like further up. 

There’s nothing one-off about the 33% increases in sales. This was driven by the firm’s social media platforms, which continue to do well.

The number of users keeps climbing. And Meta is also finding ways to get more advertising revenues from its existing user base.

All of this is positive. But there are two major reasons the stock fell meaningfully in extended trading – and both are familiar.

One is an increase in expected capital expenditures. And the other is the potential implications of its recent legal difficulties.

Why is the stock down?

Meta increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to $145bn from $125bn. That’s a bold move in a market wary about the long-term demand for data centres.

My view, however, is that investors don’t have a huge amount to worry about here. The key is that the advertising revenues are continuing to grow strongly. 

This is what allowed the firm to keep moving forward while burning cash on metaverse projects. And I think it will offer a form of protection again.

The bigger concern, in my view, is the ongoing legal issues. Meta lost a couple of cases earlier this year and there are more scheduled. 

The company warned that these might result in a material loss. And that’s something that does make me wary as an investor. 

It’s not just the potential costs that concern me. It’s a threat to Meta’s social media business – which I see as fundamental to the data centre spending.

Risk assessment

Meta shares trade at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than the other big US tech stocks. But I’m very wary of the current risks.

I think investors often underestimate legal threats when it comes to companies like Meta. And they have some justification. 

Alphabet was found guilty of maintaining an illegal monopoly. But in the end, the company escaped any major sanctions. 

I’m not convinced Meta is the same. Young people’s online safety is a subject that a lot of individuals — rightly — feel strongly about.

As a result, I’m taking a cautious view of the stock right now. I doubt it’s going to be fatal to the firm, but I think it’s very hard to assess it accurately.

This means me buying the stock right now looks more like gambling to me than investing. And that’s not what I’m in the stock market for. 

What to do?

Not buying Meta shares at today’s prices might turn out to be my mistake. But it’s one I can live with in my own investing. 

The stock might be down, but that doesn’t automatically make it a buy. For my money, some of the other big US tech stocks are more compelling right now.

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Many tech shares have taken a beating lately. In fact, a couple look like they’ve gone a few rounds with a prime Mike Tyson!

Take Meta, for example, which has fallen 23% since August. It now has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19. At first glance, that just looks too low.

I mean, it’s far cheaper than other well-known S&P 500 blue-chips such as Walmart (42), Costco (50), Caterpillar (31), Netflix (31), and even McDonald’s (23). And next to Tesla and Palantir, Meta looks like a deep-value tech stock.

So should I invest in the social media giant?

High-margin machine

As most will be aware, Meta’s the company behind Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Between them, these platforms have an astonishing 3.58bn user worldwide. Meta also sells VR headsets and AI smart glasses.

The company is a cash machine, with most of its revenue coming from high-margin digital advertising. Meta’s gross and operating margins are 82% and 41% respectively.

Looking out to 2028 forecasts, the forward-looking P/E drops to around 15. This is the type of multiple I’d expect to see from a mature, slow-growth company. Yet Meta’s net income’s expected to top $100bn by then, up from $60.5bn last year.

Plus, there appears to be a ton of long-term growth left in the tank. For example, Meta’s now actively monetising WhatsApp by charging businesses to send users messages and facilitate chats, potentially turning the app into a major revenue generator.

It’s also introducing ads inside WhatsApp, though wisely keeping them away from users’ private inboxes to avoid annoying them. 

Meanwhile, the core Facebook and Instagram ad businesses should continue growing, as AI power is enhancing targeted ads and making them more valuable. Last year, average price per ad increased 9%.

On top of this, Meta’s other big bets it’s working on that could drive big growth in future. These include AI agents, AI ‘superintelligence’, and smart glasses (which CEO Mark Zuckerberg thinks could eventually replace smartphones).

AI slop

Then again, these bets might not pay off. In 2026, Meta anticipates capital expenditures of $115bn-$135bn, with most going on its Meta Superintelligence Labs projects. It’s also started using debt to finance the AI infrastructure buildout.

Another developing risk is more countries banning kids from using social media, with Greece recently following Australia’s lead. This trend could see its Instagram and Facebook user base diminish.

Indeed, more people are associating social media with tobacco, in terms of its addictiveness. That’s not a great association from a business (and valuation) perspective. It may even face lots more litigation.

Another worry I have is the growing amount of AI-generated content (particularly AI slop) on its platforms. If users feel like they’re just interacting with fake images rather than real people, they might start spending less time on the apps.

My decision

But Meta stock looks undervalued, so investors may want to take a closer look at it. However, due to the worries I’ve outlined, I’m not going to invest. Fortunately, there are plenty of other opportunities out there right now.

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As a result, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15. That’s unusually low – but is it an opportunity or a trap?

Why is the stock falling?

There are a few things weighing on the Meta share price right now. But the most significant might be a pair of court rulings against the firm.

One states that the firm knowingly misled parents about the safety of its social media apps. That’s a potentially huge issue.

The case cost Meta around $381m, which isn’t a lot by itself. But the number of similar cases means this could rise sharply.

Another ruling states that the firm has designed addictive products that caused harm to young people. That’s another big concern.

The risk is that Meta might have to make substantial changes to its social media apps. And this could reduce its appeal to advertisers.

The legal issues aren’t the only reasons the stock fell 12.5% in March. But I think they’re the biggest threat in the equation going forward.

A buying opportunity?

Historically, legal challenges have presented investors with the chance to buy stocks like Meta. That might be concerning in some ways, but it’s true.

Most recently, it’s been true of Alphabet. The company was found guilty last year of illegally maintaining a monopoly. 

Despite this, the firm escaped serious structural damage. And the share price is up 65% in the last 12 months as a result.

Meta also has its own history. The most obvious example is the Cambridge Analytica issues around privacy from 2019. 

The company settled the cases (without admitting guilt) and the stock fell 39% as a result. But it’s now 320% off its lows.

There’s no denying that past legal issues have presented chances to be greedy when others are fearful. But investors need to tread carefully.

Risks and rewards

Buying shares in a company that’s facing legal troubles is always risky. And there’s a lot of uncertainty around Meta’s position.

It’s easy and natural to dismiss the potential risk as something that won’t happen. Especially when the consequences could be huge. 

Alphabet last year is a good example. The company avoided the worst-case outcome, but I don’t think the market really took the threat seriously.

From what I saw, a lot of investors dismissed the possibility without having much reason for doing so. And that’s incredibly dangerous. 

Good investors don’t do this. They think carefully about the potential threats and work out how significant they might be.

With Meta, that’s exceptionally difficult to do at the moment. But that might just mean the falling share price isn’t a buying opportunity.

The rules of investing

Investors looking to be greedy when others are fearful always need to ask one question: what do they know that others don’t?

With Meta, they need an insight into why the likely outcome of the legal issues is more positive than the market thinks. And that needs to be an informed view. 

If I’m honest with myself, I don’t have this, so I’m not buying the stock. But there are plenty of other names I’m more positive about.

The post Why Meta Platforms shares fell 12.5% in March appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Is it time to buy this Magnificent 7 name for my portfolio? Let’s take a look at the set-up.

Looking cheap today

Meta certainly looks cheap right now. With analysts expecting earnings per share of $29.80 this year and $34.40 next, we’re looking at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.4 and 15.9 on a forward-looking basis.

These are low valuations for a Magnificent 7 stock. Especially when you consider the growth that Meta is anticipated to generate in the coming years.

This year, revenue is projected to climb about 25% year on year to $250bn. Next year, analysts expect $296bn (+18%).

As for earnings per share, we’re looking at growth of about 27% this year and 15% next. If we take that expected earnings growth figure for 2026 and compare it to the P/E ratio, we get a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of just 0.7 (a ratio under one typically signals that a stock is undervalued).

An AI winner?

Looking beyond the valuation, Meta has big plans for the future. While the company is known for its social media platforms today, it’s likely to be more of an AI business down the track.

Meta’s aim is to build a ‘superintelligence’ platform and give people access to powerful AI tools that can empower them to achieve unprecedented productivity. Ultimately, its goal is to become an indispensable utility in the AI era.

To do this, it’s investing billions in AI infrastructure (data centres, chips, nuclear power, etc). It’s also focusing on products such as large language models (Llama) and smart glasses.

So, there’s a long-term growth story here. If the world continues to adopt AI, Meta could potentially get much bigger.

Big risks for investors

While this all sounds exciting, there are quite a few risks to the investment case (in both the short term and the long term). In the short term, the company is facing a high level of regulatory/legal scrutiny due to the addictive nature of its platforms.

The reason the share price dropped yesterday was that the company lost a court case in relation to social media harm. Experts believe that this could open it up to a wave of litigation (which could potentially impact its profits and cash flows significantly).

Meanwhile, in the long run, we don’t know if Meta’s huge investments in AI (it plans to spend up to $135bn this year) will actually pay off. The company is going to have a lot of competition in this space and at this stage, no one knows exactly how AI will play out.

One other thing to mention is that the share price chart looks terrible. Right now, the stock is in a nasty downtrend and buying may be akin to trying to catch a falling knife.

Better opportunities in the market?

Weighing this all up, I’m not going to buy Meta stock for my portfolio right now. In my view, it’s too risky.

I think there are better opportunities for me in the market at the moment.

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When they’re not watching oil prices, investors are trying to figure out artificial intelligence (AI). And Meta is an interesting case study.

Horizon Worlds

One of Meta’s recent ventures is Horizon Worlds. For those that haven’t heard of it (lucky them) it’s a sort of metaverse game.

The company announced that it was shutting the project down, before changing its mind almost immediately. But that’s not important.

The point is that Meta has lost a lot of money a lot on the metaverse since 2021. The total is around $84bn in operating income. 

The thing is, though, the stock has done really well – handily outperforming the S&P 500 since 2021. And the reason is simple.

Source: Fiscal.ai

The metaverse project has been an almost total failure. But Meta’s social media platforms have been absolutely sensational.

Since 2021, they’ve generated enough high-margin revenue to take operating profits from $46bn to $83bn. That’s why the stock is up.

I think the lesson here is that a company with terrific core assets can withstand big mistakes. And that feels very relevant in today’s stock market.

Artificial intelligence

Investors are currently wary of companies spending big on AI. There’s a real risk these won’t work. 

Two good examples are Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The stock market has reacted badly to their plans to keep investing through 2026.

The question is how investors should assess that risk. And I think the example of Meta is an instructive one. 

Both Amazon and Microsoft plan to spend north of $100bn in 2026. But they also have quality businesses behind them.

Amazon has AWS – its cloud computing division – and a growing advertising business. Both of these generate high-margin revenues. 

Microsoft also has a cloud business – Azure – and a huge enterprise software unit. And those are extremely impressive operations.

None of this means AI investments are going to work out for either company. But I think it means the risk might be worth it for investors.

Risk taking

Amazon and Microsoft are used to taking risks that don’t ultimately work. Both companies have tried to launch smartphones – and neither succeeded.

There are plenty more examples of unsuccessful ventures. Despite this, both stocks have been terrific investments until recently.

The proposed AI spending is on another level. But Horizon Worlds shows that more money doesn’t guarantee success.

It’s really hard to know if the latest investments are going to work. So investors can’t afford to just ignore the inherent risks.

Fortunately, I don’t think they need to. In my view, there’s a good chance both stocks do well even if the AI investments don’t.

This is why I see both stocks as buying opportunities worth considering right now. In my own portfolio, I’ve been focusing on Microsoft.

The only reason for this is that Amazon is already a big part of my portfolio. So I’m looking to add to the company I own less of.

The bottom line

Can both stocks fall further from their current levels? Absolutely – that happened to Meta in 2022. 

Will their strong operations ultimately come to the fore the way Meta’s did? My view is that this is also likely.

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In practice though, manager Bill Ackman has driven exceptional gains through this high-conviction strategy. Last year, Pershing Square delivered a total shareholder return of 33.9%.

That was significantly higher than both the S&P 500 (17.9%) and FTSE 100 (25.7%). And since Ackman restructured the fund, the eight-year annualised return has been 23% versus the S&P 500’s 14.3%.

The Pershing Square share price is up nearly 300% since IPO in 2017.

Putting money to work

As mentioned, Ackman isn’t a fan of broad diversification. As of early 2026, his top five holdings made up around 73% of the entire portfolio. 

These are global businesses with deep moats and strong brands like Amazon, Uber, Alphabet, and hotel group Hilton Worldwide.

Clearly, given Ackman’s track record, it’s worth keeping an eye on what he’s buying. And back in November, he said Pershing was “seeing some very high-quality businesses showing up at very attractive prices“. He was ready to put “some money to work“.

At the time, I speculated that Ackman might buy Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META). The billionaire likes to snap up shares when they’re out of favour and Meta was down 20% since August. Moreover, it was the cheapest Magnificent Seven stock. 

Last week, Pershing revealed it had indeed bought Meta stock. In Q4, it acquired $1.76bn worth of shares, making the social media giant a chunky 11.37% portfolio position.

Should I follow Ackman and invest too?

Superintelligence push

Meta’s platforms need no introduction. Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp are woven into the daily reality of many people worldwide. At the end of 2025, the figure was 3.58bn users.

When you’re operating at such a scale, the advertising opportunity is immense. In Q4, ad impressions delivered across its apps jumped by 18%, with the average price per ad rising by 6%.

This helped drive $201bn in revenue in 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase. The operating margin was 41%, which shows how profitable Meta is.

However, while recognising the obvious quality of the business, I do have some concerns. First, CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going all out to advance “personal superintelligence for people around the world“.

This will see Meta spend up to $135bn on AI in 2026 — significantly more than the firm’s free cash flow last year ($43.6bn).

Writing this, I’m getting flashbacks to 2021/22 when Meta went all in on the metaverse, even changing the company name to reflect that move. But this Reality Labs venture has been a cash-incinerating flop so far, and I fear AI might not justify this extreme spending.

Another issue is the growing move by governments to ban social media for under 16s, including possibly in the UK. This might see Facebook and Instagram lose relevance among younger generations.

Deep discount

Ackman disagrees, however. He said: “We believe Meta’s current share price underappreciates the company’s long-term upside potential from AI and represents a deeply discounted valuation“.

He may prove right, but I’m not buying. I prefer Pershing Square itself,as it’s trading at a 23% discount to its net asset value.

I think the FTSE 100 trust is worth considering for investors who believe in Ackman’s high-conviction strategy.

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After its Q3 update, the stock fell as the firm’s huge artificial intelligence (AI) spending made investors nervous. That looks set to continue, but the response has been very different this time.

Q4 earnings

Meta’s results for the fourth quarter of 2025 were very strong. Revenues were up by 24% and earnings per share grew 11% – but these aren’t the numbers investors were really waiting for.

The market’s focus recently has been the company’s plans to keep investing in AI data centres. And while capital expenditures were up 49% in Q4, there’s more to come in 2026.

Meta announced plans to increase spending from $72bn to somewhere between $115bn and $135bn. That’s more than double the company’s net income from 2025. 

When the firm announced a $5bn increase in capital expenditures in Q3, the stock fell 11%. But investors seem to be much more positive this time – and I have a theory about why.

What’s changed?

I think the big difference is a change in tone from CEO Mark Zuckerberg. That might not sound like much, but it might well be at the core of how investors are viewing Meta shares at the moment.

In Q3, Zuckerberg spoke about spending to avoid the risk of being underinvested in AI. But the idea that the company was essentially spending because it had no choice didn’t go over well. 

This time, the CEO was much more positive about the purpose of the AI investment. The emphasis was more on the kind of products Meta hopes to launch, rather than losing ground.

From an investment perspective, that can make a big difference. It’s one thing for the firm to spend $70bn just to avoid being left behind, but another for it to have $130bn worth of opportunities.

What should investors think?

Meta is encouraging investors to see its higher spending as an investment opportunity, rather than a necessary cost. But I’m not entirely sure I’m buying it and that makes me wary.

The firm has also been borrowing to finance its AI spending and this also changes the equation. Getting a bad return on cash is one thing, but taking on debt raises the stakes for investors. 

Importantly though, the firm expects operating income to grow in 2026. Given the increase in already huge spending commitments, that’s both impressive and reassuring.

This – along with some very impressive results in Q4 – highlights the strength of Meta’s core advertising business. But that’s something investors probably didn’t need reminding of.

AI risks and rewards

Meta is increasing its capital expenditures, but the stock market is taking the news well – certainly compared to the response at the end of Q3. And I think there are two main reasons for this. 

In my view, the more positive commentary provided by Mark Zuckerberg – as an opportunity, rather than a threat – is one reason. The other is the strong operating income guidance for 2026.

Both of these are encouraging, but I think a rising share price ought to make investors cautious. The stock is definitely one to keep an eye on, but that’s about as far as I’m willing to go right now.

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In eight out of the last 10 years, the S&P 500 produced a positive return. Last year was another success story, despite President Trump’s tariff measures and global conflicts. But are US stocks poised for a crash in 2026? Here’s my take.

Warning signs

Every year, scores of analysts and commentators prophesise about an imminent stock market crash. Equally, many counter the doomsayers with bullish forecasts of glorious gains. The truth is, nobody knows what will happen for sure.

However, we can compare where we are today with previous periods in history and draw inferences accordingly. Worryingly, there are some red flags for S&P 500 stocks as we enter the new year.

One is the Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This valuation metric divides the current S&P 500 price by the average of the last 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings.

Currently, it’s at 40.74. To put that number in context, that’s the second-highest level in history, surpassed only by the dot-com bubble. Many fear that an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is inflating in today’s stock market. When bubbles pop, the subsequent crash can be devastating.

Capital expenditure on AI by S&P 500 companies totalled around $400bn in 2025. This year’s estimates are over $500bn. If sentiment shifts, 2026 could prove to be very painful for investors in US shares.

Reasons to be optimistic

Drawing parallels with the late 90s is tempting, but there are crucial differences between the S&P 500 then and today. Back in the dot-com era, many tech stocks lacked profits and robust cash flows. The rapid share price increases were often driven by speculative frenzy.

Arguably, today’s mega-cap tech firms are in much better shape. They’re highly profitable businesses with strong fundamentals across a range of metrics.

AI potential might be driving share prices higher, but concrete earnings can justify the excitement. Those expecting an S&P 500 crash this year may well find their fears are unfounded.

An undervalued Magnificent 7 stock

A full-blown crash is a possibility, but I err on the side of optimism. After all, the great Benjamin Graham said: “To be an investor, you must be a believer in a better tomorrow“.

But, I’m conscious of overvaluation, too. That’s why I recently invested in Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), the owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

With a forward P/E multiple around 22.2, Meta’s the cheapest of the Magnificent 7 club on this metric. I think the stock could shine this year, provided the whole market doesn’t crash.

Third-quarter earnings were impressive, with revenue rising 26% to $51bn and daily users increasing by 8% to 3.54bn. Precision-targeted advertising continues to be a cash machine for the company and the width of its moat in the social media world can’t be overstated.

Regulation is a growing risk for the company. Australia’s social media ban for under-16s could inspire other countries to follow suit, which could hurt the Meta share price.

Nonetheless, I think Mark Zuckerberg is one of the most talented and competitive S&P 500 CEOs. At today’s price, Meta could be a long-term outperformer.

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I’m just wondering if investors have a full understanding of the backdrop here though? Because there are a few important things to know about this tech company.

Profit uncertainty

The first thing to understand about Meta is that the company is spending tens of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure. This could really slow profit growth in the years ahead.

Currently, analysts expect 20% growth in earnings per share next year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this forecast come down, however (putting pressure on the share price).

Because when CEO Mark Zuckerberg decides to spend money, he tends to really go for it. Note that recently, he said that he’d “rather risk misspending a couple of hundred billion” dollars on AI than fall behind in the race for artificial superintelligence.

Vulnerable to disruption

Another issue with the huge amount of AI spending is that there’s no guarantee that the investment will pay off in the long run. Now, this could be said for a lot of companies but with Meta there are two specific issues.

First, it doesn’t have a cloud computing unit. Having a cloud unit gives a company the ability to monetise excess computing power by providing services to other businesses.

Second, there’s talk of ChatGPT moving into the social media space. This could be a problem for Meta as users of social media platforms tend to be fickle when it comes to their platforms of choice.

On this second point, I actually think Meta may be the most vulnerable/disruptable company of the Magnificent 7. With the bulk of its revenues coming from social media digital advertising, it’s not nearly as diversified as some of the others.

Smart glasses competition

Of course, Meta has branched out into smart glasses recently. And it has been having success here.

But here’s the thing – tons of companies are developing these. In China, for example, Baidu, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Huawei all have them.

So, they could end up being commoditised in the long run. Ultimately, I don’t think Meta’s smart glasses are suddenly going to become the new Apple iPhone.

Speaking of Apple, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this company enter the space and capture significant market share. It usually waits for others to release rudimentary versions of tech products and then creates a better version.

It did this with MP3 players and smartphones. And I can see it happening here.

Still worth a look?

Now, I don’t want to sound too bearish on Meta. Because at the end of the day, this company has billions of users on its platforms and it’s already using AI to increase efficiency.

It has also been a terrific wealth generator over the long term. And Mark Zuckerberg has faced plenty of challenges in the past and navigated them successfully.

I just think there’s a chance that the stock may not perform as well as investors believe it will. So it could be worth considering other opportunities in the market right now alongside this stock.

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