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        <title>Greggs Plc (LSE:GRG) Share Price, History, &amp; News | The Twelfth Magpie</title>
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	<title>Greggs Plc (LSE:GRG) Share Price, History, &amp; News | The Twelfth Magpie</title>
	<link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/</link>
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            <item>
                                <title>Greggs shares are the FTSE 250&#8217;s biggest risers. How did that happen?!</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/13/greggs-shares-are-the-ftse-250s-biggest-risers-how-did-that-happen/</link>
                                <pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 05:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Royston Wild]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing For Beginners]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1689535</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Greggs shares have shot higher again following strong trading news. Has the comeback started for this bruised FTSE 250 stock?</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/13/greggs-shares-are-the-ftse-250s-biggest-risers-how-did-that-happen/">Greggs shares are the FTSE 250&#8217;s biggest risers. How did that happen?!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It&#8217;s not often you see <strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE:GRG</a>) shares tearing higher. Investors have got used to the <strong>FTSE 250</strong> share falling in value, even plummeting off a cliff at times.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But Greggs&#8217; share price is biting back. Up 5% yesterday (12 May), the battered baker was the <a href="https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/understanding-the-market/what-is-the-ftse-250/" id="https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/understanding-the-market/what-is-the-ftse-250/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">FTSE 250</a>&#8216;s biggest riser in Tuesday business. So what&#8217;s happened? And is it a top recovery share to consider?</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rising-revenues">Rising revenues</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Consumer spending remains under pressure as the cost-of-living crisis rolls on. Yet trading at Greggs has remained remarkably resilient so far in 2026, as its trading statement yesterday shows.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Analysts at Charles Stanley note that</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs’ latest trading update highlights its resilience, with like-for-like sales growth holding up and even accelerating in the most recent 10-week period.</p>
</blockquote>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So what did the baker announce? At headline level, <a href="https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/investment-glossary/what-is-revenue/" id="https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/investment-glossary/what-is-revenue/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">revenues</a> were up 7.5% during the first 19 weeks of 2026, at £800m. Like-for-like sales increased 2.5% in the period, with growth speeding up to 3.3% in the last 10 weeks.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs says &#8220;<em>partnerships with franchisees and grocery retailers are progressing well and contributing to the growth in overall sales</em>.&#8221; What also benefits the business is its strong brand power and packed menu of UK favourites like sausage rolls, doughnuts and cream buns.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the business isn&#8217;t sitting on its hands, and continued menu refreshments are helping it thrive even as many of its rivals struggle. As Hargreaves Lansdown analysts note: <em>&#8220;Continued menu tweaks and improvements have drawn existing customers back, and the addition of new salads and iced coffees to the lunchtime menu is helping the group appeal to a new and younger customer base&#8221;.</em></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cost-controls">Cost controls</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It&#8217;s not just sales news that&#8217;s impressed investors (like myself) either. Greggs also says it&#8217;s made &#8220;<em>encouraging profit progress in the year to date, partly reflecting a weak comparator period but also good operational cost control</em>.&#8221;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Costs remain a threat to UK businesses as energy prices spike. But Greggs&#8217; work on this front is paying off handsomely, and it&#8217;s &#8216;locked in&#8217; costs for 85% of its energy needs for this year (as well as 50% for next). As a result, headline cost inflation is still expected to run at roughly 3% in 2026.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So what does all this mean? The firm has kept its full-year guidance unchanged for 2026, with profits tipped to match last year&#8217;s levels. Having averted releasing a fresh profit warning, it&#8217;s perhaps no surprise that Greggs&#8217; share price has taken off.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-are-greggs-shares-a-buy">Are Greggs shares a buy?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Don&#8217;t think that Greggs is out of the woods just yet, though. Consumer spending remains under the cosh, as I said. And as analysts at eToro mentions:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Management’s warning over escalating Middle East tensions highlights how quickly fuel, transport and food prices could rise again</em></p>
</blockquote>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The question is, are Greggs shares now a tasty buy? Risks remain, but the firm&#8217;s improving resilience bodes well for the near term. Looking further out, I expect profits to rise sharply as store rollout continues and exposure to the lucrative delivery and evening markets ticks up.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What&#8217;s more, today the stock has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5. That&#8217;s far below the 10-year average of 22–23. For investors seeking attractive recovery stocks, I think Greggs merits serious attention.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/13/greggs-shares-are-the-ftse-250s-biggest-risers-how-did-that-happen/">Greggs shares are the FTSE 250&#8217;s biggest risers. How did that happen?!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>How to turn a £20k Stocks and Shares ISA into a £1k monthly second income!</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/09/how-to-turn-a-20k-stocks-and-shares-isa-into-a-1k-monthly-second-income/</link>
                                <pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2026 06:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Royston Wild]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing For Beginners]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1686698</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Looking for ways to make a large and reliable passive income in retirement? Buying dividend shares in a Stocks and Shares ISA could be the way to go.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/09/how-to-turn-a-20k-stocks-and-shares-isa-into-a-1k-monthly-second-income/">How to turn a £20k Stocks and Shares ISA into a £1k monthly second income!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">How does using a Stocks and Shares ISA to make a passive income sound to you? I use one of these tax-free products alongside a couple of SIPPs to target extra cash. If things go to plan, I&#8217;ll be making a four-figure income every month to fund my lifestyle in retirement.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Want to know how?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-compound-gains">Compound gains</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Every year, individuals who use ISAs to invest in shares have £20,000 contribution room to use. Drip-feeding money into the stock market is a proven way to build long-term wealth. In recent decades, equity investing has delivered an average annual return of 8%-10%.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, investing a lump sum into a Stocks and Shares ISA can be a better way to target high returns. Why? It maximises the time your money is exposed to the market, thus boosting the <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/the-miracle-of-compound-returns/" id="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/the-miracle-of-compound-returns/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">compounding</a> effect over time.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Don&#8217;t just take my word for it, though. According to Hargreaves Lansdown, &#8220;<em>almost a third (30%) of [our] ISA millionaires topped up or opened an ISA in the first two weeks of the 2025/26 tax year</em>&#8220;. The most successful investors get their cash working harder for them and sooner.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-to-buy">What to buy?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Let me show you how lump sum investing could deliver a £1k a month ISA income. In this example, we&#8217;ll assume an investor has a spare £20,000 to use for buying <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-shares-are-taxed-2/how-dividends-are-taxed/" id="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-shares-are-taxed-2/how-dividends-are-taxed/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dividend</a> shares. Any dividends received would also be reinvested, boosting compound gains even more.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If our investor targeted an average 6% yield from their diversified portfolio, they&#8217;d need a Stocks and Shares ISA of £200,000 for a £1,000 monthly second income. At this level of dividend yield, there are plenty of shares they could target.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Myself, I hold a variety of income-paying stocks in my portfolio, including:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Legal &amp; General</strong> &#8211; 8.7% yield</li>



<li><strong>Greggs </strong>&#8211; 4.5% yield</li>



<li><strong>Primary Health Properties </strong>&#8211; 7.5% yield</li>



<li><strong>Barratt Redrow </strong>&#8211; 5.8% yield</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With shares like these, I think an average annual return of 9% is possible, factoring in capital gains and dividends. At this rate, I could turn a £20,000 ISA into a £200,000 one in just over 25 years, without any extra cash being invested.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-a-top-isa-pick">A top ISA pick?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This strategy isn&#8217;t risk free, as dividends are never guaranteed. But holding a range of quality, cash-generative companies can substantially boost the chances of a reliable passive income.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Take Greggs, which has a strong record of dividend growth this century. Its only dividend cuts came in 2020-2021 when the once-in-a-century global pandemic shuttered its bakeries.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Profits (and dividends) here are linked closely to broader economic conditions. But Greggs&#8217; focus on the food market leaves it better placed than most other retail shares during downturns. What&#8217;s more, the baker&#8217;s strategy of producing value products &#8212; combined with its strong brand power &#8212; helps it outperform its peers in tough times.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The <strong>FTSE 250</strong> firm is also highly cash generative, providing the financial foundations for its progressive dividend policy. And with capex from its store buildout policy having peaked last year, Greggs is tipped by analysts to start paying special dividends again, possibly as soon as next year.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/09/how-to-turn-a-20k-stocks-and-shares-isa-into-a-1k-monthly-second-income/">How to turn a £20k Stocks and Shares ISA into a £1k monthly second income!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>Thank goodness I didn&#8217;t buy Greggs shares in 2025</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/thank-goodness-i-didnt-buy-greggs-shares-in-2025/</link>
                                <pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 16:07:06 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[John Fieldsend]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Shares]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1686524</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Greggs was a very popular stock in the early days of 2025. Our author takes a look at his decision not to open a position in the baker.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/thank-goodness-i-didnt-buy-greggs-shares-in-2025/">Thank goodness I didn&#8217;t buy Greggs shares in 2025</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In the first month of 2025, <strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE: GRG</a>) shares were riding the crest of a wave. The low-cost bakery chain was rapidly expanding. The release of new products like the &#8216;vegan sausage roll&#8217; had been making newspaper headlines. The share price had been surging on the back of the company&#8217;s rapid expansion up and down the country.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Articles covering Greggs shares were some of the most viewed here on <em>The Motley Fool</em>. The stock was one of the most exciting on the entire <strong>London Stock Exchange</strong> and seemingly destined to join the heavyweights on the <strong>FTSE 100</strong>.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What happened next? A rather large reversal of fortunes&#8230;</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-didn-t-i-buy">Why didn&#8217;t I buy?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs‘ share price fell from 2,796p in January 2025 to 1,509p up to May. An investor opening a position in the early stages of last year would be looking at a paper loss of 46%. Yowzer!</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This was no hypothetical exercise either. I wrote about Greggs shares numerous times near the peak of the hype and considered buying a small stake. The growth story looked compelling, with hundreds of locations opening every year. Its niche of a low-cost meal provider during a cost-of-living crisis looked attractive too.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In the end, I opted against the purchase. Why? The valuation played some role – a price-to-earnings ratio in the high 20s compared unfavourably to many other British stocks. You might remember how many were saying UK stocks were looking underpriced around then and the FTSE 100 did go on to have a mini bull run. The growing <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/your-money/guides/what-is-inflation/">impact of inflation</a> was a concern of mine too. </p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-next">What next?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While I&#8217;m thankful that I opted against a decision that would have see me lose half my stake, the situation’s now somewhat different. Greggs’ shares are 46% cheaper than they were. Could they be a <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-to-invest-in-shares/how-to-be-a-good-investor/">good buy</a> today?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The plus side is that Greggs is still growing, adding over 120 new shops in 2026 on current expectations. And a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 looks attractive for a stake in a growing company. That&#8217;s half what it was in 2025 and a significant discount compared to many other UK stocks. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On the other hand, new problems have entered the fray. Wage costs have been rising due to government policy and inflation looks set to be a longer-lasting problem than first feared. The issues with casual theft have caused some stores to rework the floor plan to deter opportunistic robbers too. All issues that look likely to put a squeeze on margins. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Personally, I think this is one I will still be avoiding. Simply, I think there are better buying opportunities in Britain at the moment. I recognise there are plenty of opportunitiers though and think it could be one to consider for the right type of investor.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/thank-goodness-i-didnt-buy-greggs-shares-in-2025/">Thank goodness I didn&#8217;t buy Greggs shares in 2025</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>Are Greggs shares 50.3% undervalued?</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/are-greggs-shares-50-3-undervalued/</link>
                                <pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 09:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Stephen Wright]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Shares]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1687650</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Stephen Wright’s DCF analysis suggests Greggs' shares are trading at a 50.3% discount to their intrinsic value. But how plausible is this?</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/are-greggs-shares-50-3-undervalued/">Are Greggs shares 50.3% undervalued?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
                                                                                            <content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Are <strong>Greggs</strong>&#8216; (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE:GRG</a>) shares undervalued? The best way to figure it out is with a discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation.</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="2021-05-06" data-end-date="2026-05-06" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This computes an intrinsic value for a stock that investors can compare to the current price. But the output is only as accurate as its inputs…</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-dcf-calculation">DCF calculation</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-to-value-shares/the-gordon-growth-model/">kind of DCF calculation I&#8217;m using here</a> needs three main inputs:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The current free cash flows.</li>



<li>A discount rate.</li>



<li>The future growth rate.</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The first two are straightforward enough. The current <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/the-cash-flow-statement/">cash flows</a> are in the firm’s accounts and the discount rate is the investor’s desired annual return.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The third input is the most difficult. A company’s future cash flows aren’t specified the way they are with a bond. That means investors have to try and figure them out. And the resulting valuation is only as accurate as the estimates they come up with.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs however, is a relatively uncomplicated business. So I think investors can have a decent idea of its future prospects.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-margins">Margins</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2025, Greggs generated £73.7m in free cash. But that was an unusual year containing some one-off investments. The company’s free cash flow margin was 3.4%. Over the last 10 years however, it’s more usually been around the 5% mark.</p>



<div class="wp-block-getwid-image-box has-text-center has-mobile-layout-default has-mobile-alignment-default"><div class="wp-block-getwid-image-box__image-container is-position-top"><div class="wp-block-getwid-image-box__image-wrapper"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1200" height="851" src="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Greggs_plc_GRG-1200x851.jpg" alt="" class="wp-block-getwid-image-box__image wp-image-1687651" /></div></div><div class="wp-block-getwid-image-box__content">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Source: Fiscal.ai</em></p>
</div></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The difference between 3.4% and 5% might not look like much. But based on last year’s sales, it’s the difference between £73.7m and £108.4m.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There’s a lot to look at on this front. <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/your-money/guides/what-is-inflation/">Inflation</a> will create margin pressure, but when the firm stops opening new stores, this should improve. Given this, I think it’s worth assuming a 5% free cash flow margin in a DCF model. The next question is how much is that going to grow?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-growth">Growth</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2025, Greggs achieved like-for-like sales growth of 2.4%. But that’s not the firm’s only source of growth going forward. In the short term, it can keep opening new stores. In recent years, this has been supporting some weak like-for-like growth figures.This can’t go on indefinitely. But when it finishes, I expect the firm to have more free cash available to support other initiatives.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One example is share buybacks. This can generate higher free cash flows per share by reducing the overall number of shares outstanding. Given this, I expect Greggs to be able to generate 5% overall growth in future. The source of that growth will change over time, but that’s my forecast.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-much-is-it-worth">How much is it worth?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So in looking to work out an intrinsic value for Greggs&#8217; shares, I have the following assumptions:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Normalised free cash flows of £108.4m (based on a 5% margin).</li>



<li>A 10% discount rate (my target rate of return).</li>



<li>A 5% growth rate (from a combination of higher sales and share buybacks).</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Based on this, a DCF calculation generates a valuation of £2.25bn for the entire business. And that implies a share price of £22.05. With the stock at £14.67, that’s a huge 50.3% discount from the current level. So if what I’m assuming is correct, the stock&#8217;s undervalued. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It’s worth reiterating that there are no guarantees. But these are my current best estimates and I’ll look to return with future updates. If I’m right – or even close – the discount means the stock&#8217;s worth a closer look. Unless, of course, there are even better opportunities elsewhere…</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/06/are-greggs-shares-50-3-undervalued/">Are Greggs shares 50.3% undervalued?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>Could Greggs shares bounce back and pull a Rolls-Royce?</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/05/could-greggs-shares-bounce-back-and-pull-a-rolls-royce/</link>
                                <pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 18:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Hartley]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Shares]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1686839</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>It may seem odd to compare a major aerospace engineer to a bakery chain, but Greggs shares currently exhibit a stark similarity to Rolls back in 2020.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/05/could-greggs-shares-bounce-back-and-pull-a-rolls-royce/">Could Greggs shares bounce back and pull a Rolls-Royce?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Currently trading around £15 each, <strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE: GRG</a>) shares have lost more than half their value since their 2022 high above £33.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It&#8217;s a shocking comparison to the promising growth stock it once was in the late 20-teens. And that&#8217;s exactly why it closely mirrors the price activity of <strong>Rolls-Royce</strong> between 2010 and 2020.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1117" height="672" src="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/GRG_2026-05-04_18-02-50.png" alt="Greggs shares vs Rolls Royce" class="wp-image-1686853" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Created on <a href="https://TradingView.com">TradingView.com</a></figcaption></figure>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So could Greggs do a full 180 and rack up exponential gains in the coming five years?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Let&#8217;s take a closer look.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-macro-challenges">Macro challenges</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The parallels between Greggs today and Rolls-Royce in prior years run deeper than just the share price.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In both cases, sharp downturns were driven largely by external factors. In Rolls&#8217; case, the Covid-19 pandemic grounded global air travel. For Greggs, shifting consumer habits and wage hikes have hit profits hard.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But we can&#8217;t attribute Rolls&#8217; success purely to recovering air travel, otherwise all airlines would have similar fortunes. The role of CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç in the recovery can&#8217;t be overstated, which is where Greggs comes into question.&nbsp;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Can Gregg&#8217;s CEO Roisin Currie, appointed in 2022, help the bakery enact a Rolls-like recovery?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-a-greggs-recovery-is-plausible">Why a Greggs recovery is plausible</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Several factors play into the narrative of a strong recovery for Greggs. Most notably, it still has a strong underlying brand and cash flow.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It&#8217;s viewed as a leading &#8216;value food‑to‑go&#8217; brand, with resilient like‑for‑like sales, and a pipeline of store openings and new‑venue formats (rail, forecourts, supermarkets).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After its sharp fall from 2021 highs, analysts now describe it as &#8216;cheap&#8217; relative to earnings and cash generation. The current price is only 12 times estimated future earnings.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That&#8217;s attractive for a consumer‑defensive, asset‑light business. With costs falling, management now targets a <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-to-value-shares/return-on-equity-and-return-on-capital-employed/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">return on capital employed</a> (ROCE) recovery of around 20%. So even a modest margin improvement could re‑rate the shares.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That means the growth narrative of the 20-teens could return in full force – if external issues ease.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-but-will-it-be-a-rolls-like-recovery">But will it be a Rolls-like recovery?</h2>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While I&#8217;m optimistic about Greggs, I&#8217;m also realistic. Rolls&#8217; 1,000%+ rally came from a leveraged <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/the-balance-sheet/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">balance sheet</a> turnaround, double‑digit margin expansion, and extensive government defence spending.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs is different in that it&#8217;s a smaller, more cyclical, competitive consumer‑retail stock. It doesn&#8217;t exhibit quite the same structural leverage and explosive potential.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Add to that ongoing challenges like the cost-of-living crisis, weather-sensitive foot traffic, and evolving eating habits, and it faces a tough future.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I think it&#8217;s reasonable to expect growth in the 300%-400% range over the coming five years if conditions improve and it caters to changing habits.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But it&#8217;s highly unlikely that any <strong>FTSE</strong> stock will match Rolls&#8217; once-in-a-decade performance.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-bottom-line">The bottom line</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Arguably the UK&#8217;s most popular high street bakery chain, Gregg&#8217;s has grown aggressively since 2020. Between 2020 and 2025, it increased its store count from around 2,000 to over 2,700.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the rapid expansion may have been premature. After the Labour government introduced budgetary changes in October 2024, the company was faced with the threat of rising costs.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And yet despite these ongoing risks, it&#8217;s managed to maintain a healthy balance sheet. Shrinking margins are a concern but growing cash flow and an attractive valuation hint at recovery potential.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The future may be uncertain, but for value investors optimistic about the UK economy, Greggs is a compelling option to consider.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/05/could-greggs-shares-bounce-back-and-pull-a-rolls-royce/">Could Greggs shares bounce back and pull a Rolls-Royce?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>How on earth have Greggs shares fallen 49%?</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/04/how-on-earth-have-greggs-shares-fallen-by-49/</link>
                                <pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 06:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Zaven Boyrazian, CFA]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing For Beginners]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1683546</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>As Britain’s biggest and favourite bakery chain, how did Greggs' shares fall so far from grace? And could the FTSE stock be preparing for a comeback?</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/04/how-on-earth-have-greggs-shares-fallen-by-49/">How on earth have Greggs shares fallen 49%?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Greggs</strong>&#8216; (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE:GRG</a>) shares were once a stock market darling. For years, the well-known high-street sausage roll maker delivered exceptional returns through relentless estate expansion and a loyal British fanbase.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Then, from a peak of around 3,150p in September 2024, everything went wrong, leaving shareholders nursing a stomach-churning 49% loss from the top.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So what on earth happened? And is Greggs getting ready to stage a comeback?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>
</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-went-wrong">What went wrong?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are a lot of moving parts behind the downfall of Greggs&#8217; share price. Consumer spending across the UK has been subdued since mid-2024, with food-to-go market visits declining 3.1% in 2025. That&#8217;s a punishing headwind for any high street food chain. And the impact has been felt across the sector, including at other businesses like Costa Coffee and Pret A Manger.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For Greggs, the impact has translated into a significant slowdown to low single-digits – quite far below the double-digit rates that shareholders previously got to enjoy.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The cost side of the equation made things considerably worse. Surging Minimum Wage requirements and higher Employers&#8217; National Insurance contributions squeezed margins, while investment in new supply chain infrastructure added further pressure on profitability.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result? <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/the-profit-and-loss-account/">Underlying pre-tax profit</a> fell 9.4% to £171.9m in 2025, triggering multiple profit warnings along the way. Consequently, institutional analysts began downgrading the stock and revising their share price forecasts in the wrong direction.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So with investors getting spooked and sentiment struggling to recover, it&#8217;s no wonder Greggs&#8217; shares are still in the doghouse today.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-is-the-worst-over">Is the worst over?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There&#8217;s no denying that Greggs has been having a tough time of late. Yet there are some early signs that the storm may be passing. The underlying business remains <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/the-cash-flow-statement/">highly cash-generative</a>. And following its latest results, while earnings remain under pressure, growth&#8217;s seemingly starting to ramp back up. In fact, compared to the broader food-to-go market, the company&#8217;s notably outperforming and taking market share in the process.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In other words, the cyclical downturn could be starting to reverse. And with Greggs&#8217; shares trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 13.7, shareholders could soon enjoy a sustained rally if the recent recovery trends continue to build up.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Having said that, Greggs isn&#8217;t out of the woods yet. Like-for-like volumes are still under pressure, dividend cash coverage is still stretched, and management continues to expect flat profit growth in 2026.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There&#8217;s certainly room for an earnings upgrade as efforts to boost internal efficiencies progress. But without improvement in UK consumer sentiment, even management&#8217;s admitted the road ahead will continue to be challenging.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Nevertheless, I remain cautiously optimistic. Greggs currently offers a tasty 4.2% dividend yield at an undemanding valuation for a business that remains fundamentally solid. So for patient long-term investors looking for a promising recovery play, it may be worth keeping a close eye on this one.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/04/how-on-earth-have-greggs-shares-fallen-by-49/">How on earth have Greggs shares fallen 49%?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>See what £4,993 invested in Greggs shares a mere 5 days ago is worth now… </title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/03/see-what-4993-invested-in-greggs-shares-a-mere-5-days-ago-is-worth-now/</link>
                                <pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2026 07:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Harvey Jones]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Shares]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1686372</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Greggs shares had a brilliant run yet the going has been rather sticky lately. Harvey Jones looks for signs of a turnaround, but he isn't very optimistic.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/03/see-what-4993-invested-in-greggs-shares-a-mere-5-days-ago-is-worth-now/">See what £4,993 invested in Greggs shares a mere 5 days ago is worth now… </a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE: GRG</a>) shares used to be so much fun. Investors were mad for the <strong>FTSE 250</strong> stock and made good money from it too. But the whole thing got out of hand. Sales slowed, and the stock went from red hot to stone cold faster than you can say vegan sausage roll. What went wrong?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Newcastle-based bakery chain was once derided for selling fatty British stodge, then feted for the same reason. Driven by a crafty marketing campaign, stores spread across the UK. Not just high streets but shopping centres, railway stations and airports too. It even benefited from the cost-of-living crisis, as a cheeky Greggs was seen as an affordable treat. But as we got poorer, its breakneck sales growth slowed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-happened-to-this-booming-ftse-250-stock">What happened to this booming FTSE 250 stock?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">During the glory growth years, there was more froth in the share price than its takeaway cappuccinos. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio topped 23 at one point. It&#8217;s a different story today. The Greggs share price has slumped 17% over the last year, and 33% over five years. But has the sell-off been overdone?</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To a degree, I think it has. Greggs still posted record sales in 2025, up 6.8% to £2.15bn. These were driven by store expansion, as it added 121 net new outlets, lifting the total to 2,739. Company-managed shop <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/">like-for-like sales</a> increased by 2.4%, boosted by evening openings.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, underlying pre-tax profit dropped 9.4% to £172m, while margins tightened from 9.7% to 8.7%. This was down to inflation, increased infrastructure investment and the wrong type of weather. So is this an opportunity to get in at a cheaper price?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today, the Greggs P/E stands at a lowly 12.6, while the trailing dividend yield is a healthy 4.55%. So yes, in some respects, this does look like a <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-to-invest-in-shares/how-to-buy-shares/">buying opportunity</a> to consider. I should also point out that the board held the 2025 dividend at 69p per share. Inevitably, that didn&#8217;t go down well with investors.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, anybody who thought they’d spotted a bargain and sank their teeth into Greggs shares one week ago won’t be feeling very satisfied. They&#8217;ve fallen another 7% in the last week. That would have reduced a £4,993 investment (after charges) to £4,643. A quickfire loss of £350.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-is-the-stock-an-irresistible-bargain">Is the stock an irresistible bargain?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That&#8217;s hardly the end of the world. Nobody should buy shares with the intention of holding for less than five years &#8212; ideally much, much longer. So can Greggs bite back?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What it really needs is a full-blooded economic recovery, putting money into people&#8217;s pockets. Sadly, the UK seems to be a long way off that, as petrol prices rise and inflation follows. Greggs&#8217; costs will rise, while consumers will struggle. Margins could be squeezed from both sides.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On the plus side, it&#8217;s cheap, there&#8217;s a decent dividend, and Greggs remains a well-run company and a high street fixture. The shares should do well in the long run, but I think it could be in for another tough year or two. There are plenty of bargain FTSE stocks I favour over this one right now.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/03/see-what-4993-invested-in-greggs-shares-a-mere-5-days-ago-is-worth-now/">See what £4,993 invested in Greggs shares a mere 5 days ago is worth now… </a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>The biggest reason to use a SIPP is…</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/02/the-biggest-reason-to-use-a-sipp-is/</link>
                                <pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2026 14:37:10 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Christopher Ruane]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retirement Articles]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1685863</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>A SIPP can offer an investor both pros and cons. But there's one big advantage this writer rates highly. Did someone say free money?</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/02/the-biggest-reason-to-use-a-sipp-is/">The biggest reason to use a SIPP is…</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are lots of different reasons investors may decide to use a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) as a platform for buying and owning shares.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Some might be less to do with the SIPP than alternatives. Perhaps the investor has already used all of their <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/share-dealing/guides/what-is-the-isa-allowance/">ISA limit for the current tax year</a>, for example. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But some reasons people use a SIPP are specific to it. Let’s explore some more&#8230;</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tying-your-money-up-good-or-bad">Tying your money up – good or bad?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I’ll explain below what I see as <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/share-dealing/guides/what-is-a-sipp/">the main advantage of a SIPP</a>.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But it’s worth mentioning that the platform has other notable features too.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For example, unlike an ISA or <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/share-dealing/buy-shares/">share-dealing account</a>, once you put money into a SIPP you can’t take it out again for any reason until you hit a certain age (currently 55).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.</em></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Is that bad or good? That depends on your perspective, I’d say.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It could be really annoying if you wanted to tap into that money before 55, for any reason. But it could be good precisely because it effectively strips investors of that temptation.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-this-is-the-sipp-s-big-attraction-for-me">This is the SIPP’s big attraction for me</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are other pros and cons compared to alternative investment platforms, such as the tax treatment of capital gains and dividends. Those are tax-free in an ISA, for example, in a SIPP at least some of them could potentially be taxable.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, why bother even considering a SIPP?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In short: free money.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Free money, you say? Surely too good to be true?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Well, the money may not exactly be free – it’s money we&#8217;ve all already paid to HMRC.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The SIPP offers tax relief meaning that, for example, if a standard rate income taxpayer puts in £800, it’ll be topped up by £200, meaning they’ll have £1,000 in their SIPP.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For higher and additional rate taxpayers, the benefit can be even greater due to higher levels of tax relief. Even for a basic rate taxpayer, though, I reckon this is a very attractive feature of the SIPP structure.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-investing-for-the-long-term">Investing for the long term</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The SIPP’s period of locking in the money marries neatly with my long-term approach to investing.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One share I own that I plan to hold in my SIPP for the foreseeable future is <strong>Greggs </strong>(<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE: GRG</a>).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The baker’s had a lousy run on the stock market of late. It’s already down 9% so far this year, meaning that the Greggs share price is now 36% lower than five years ago.</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Still, that has pushed the dividend yield up to an attractive 4.5%.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs does face some real challenges. Its large network means some shoppers have grown fatigued of the ubiquitous brand.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Staffing so many branches – with more in the works – means its profits are vulnerable to increases in costs like wages and National Insurance contributions.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the business is profitable and continues to grow.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Its strong brand and keen price positioning make it a firm favourite with legions of hungry customers. To me, the share looks undervalued and I plan to keep hold of it.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/02/the-biggest-reason-to-use-a-sipp-is/">The biggest reason to use a SIPP is…</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>£5,000 bought 214 Greggs shares in 2021. How many would an investor get now?</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/01/5000-bought-214-greggs-shares-in-2021-how-many-would-an-investor-get-now/</link>
                                <pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2026 11:51:18 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben McPoland]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Dividend Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1685513</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>Discover why this writer believes the sell-off in Greggs shares could be overdone, and why long-term investors might want to take a closer look.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/01/5000-bought-214-greggs-shares-in-2021-how-many-would-an-investor-get-now/">£5,000 bought 214 Greggs shares in 2021. How many would an investor get now?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Looking at the price chart for <strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE:GRG</a>) shares takes me back to my childhood. In particular, the &#8216;The Ultimate&#8217; rollercoaster ride at Lightwater Valley that had two big hill climbs followed by steep drops. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For Greggs, this has included two 50% drops in the past five years &#8212; in 2022 and then again between 2024 and 2025 (and carrying on into 2026). There was a particularly terrifying white-knuckle descent in January 2025 when the <strong>FTSE 250 </strong>stock lost 25% in a few days.</p>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="2021-05-01" data-end-date="2026-05-01" data-comparison-value=""></div>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Over a five-year period, Greggs is down 34.6%. This means the same five grand that would have bought 214 shares five years ago would now get 327 shares. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But does that make the stock a dip-buying opportunity worth considering? </p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-what">The what</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Zooming out, we can ask two separate questions. What has caused the fall? And why? </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">First, it&#8217;s crystal clear that slowing growth has caused the stock to fall since 2021. Valued as a high-growth food retailer, Greggs had to keep growing at a decent clip to maintain that valuation. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But it didn&#8217;t, as the table below clearly shows. Note, 2021 followed Covid, so the figure is artificially high. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th class="has-text-align-left" data-align="left"></th><th class="has-text-align-left" data-align="left"><strong>Like-for-like sales growth</strong>&nbsp;(%)*</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="has-text-align-left" data-align="left"><strong>First nine weeks of 2026</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-left" data-align="left">1.6</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2025</strong></td><td>2.4</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2024</strong></td><td>5.5</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2023</strong></td><td>13.7</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2022</strong></td><td>17.8</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2021</strong></td><td>51.6</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><em>* in company-managed shops</em></figcaption></figure>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">During this time, Greggs has gone from 2,181 shops to 2,739, increasing sales from £1.23bn to £2.15bn. Yet profitability has been under pressure, with the <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-company-accounts/the-profit-and-loss-account/">operating margin</a> falling from 12.5% in 2021 to 8.5% last year. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Stepping back then, we might conclude that while Greggs has been getting bigger, it hasn&#8217;t necessarily been getting better. Quality growth should ideally make the company more profitable as it scales, or at least maintain profit margins. And this hasn&#8217;t been happening. </p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why">Why?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As for why, there have been a number of factors affecting Greggs&#8217; growth and profitability. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">These include the cost-of-living crisis, cost <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/personal-finance/your-money/guides/what-is-inflation/">inflation</a> (fuel, raw ingredients, etc), higher employer National Insurance contributions, and a smaller potential impact from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There isn&#8217;t much Greggs could have done to prevent these things. It has no control over interest rates, oil and fertiliser costs, government policy, and more people using diet medication.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cautious-optimism">Cautious optimism </h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Given these issues, it&#8217;s easy to see why many investors are bearish on the stock today. However, I&#8217;m cautiously optimistic that things will improve over the next five years. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Last year, underlying pre-tax profit declined 9.4% to £171.9m. But management said in March that it expects profits to remain around that level for 2026. So 2025 could be the nadir. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Over half of Greggs&#8217; new openings are located in petrol stations, supermarkets, retail parks, hospitals, university campuses, and airports. So it&#8217;s diversifying away from high streets, many of which are sadly experiencing declining footfall.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Therefore, to my mind, the chance of Greggs remaining the UK&#8217;s &#8216;food-to-go&#8217; leader is very high. Competition from smaller chains and cafes is disappearing as the UK economy struggles on. Greggs grew its market share by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% in 2025.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Plus, in mid-2026, a new manufacturing and frozen-product facility becomes operational, followed by a state-of-the-art distribution centre in 2027. These introduce more automation, which should improve efficiency.&nbsp;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And with capital expenditure on theses facilities having already peaked, free cash flow is expected to more than double by 2028. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Add this to today&#8217;s 4.5% dividend yield and I think Greggs is worth considering today for long-term investors.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/05/01/5000-bought-214-greggs-shares-in-2021-how-many-would-an-investor-get-now/">£5,000 bought 214 Greggs shares in 2021. How many would an investor get now?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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                                <title>Down 36% in 5 years, will the Greggs share price ever recover?</title>
                <link>https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/04/30/down-36-in-5-years-will-the-greggs-share-price-ever-recover/</link>
                                <pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[Cliff D'Arcy]]></dc:creator>
                		<category><![CDATA[Dividend Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Articles]]></category>

                <guid isPermaLink="false">https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/?p=1685173</guid>
                                    <description><![CDATA[<p>The Greggs share price is down almost 19% over one year and 36% over five years. Profits have been hit by rising costs, but this stock looks cheap to me.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/04/30/down-36-in-5-years-will-the-greggs-share-price-ever-recover/">Down 36% in 5 years, will the Greggs share price ever recover?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What a tough five years it&#8217;s been for the <strong>Greggs</strong> (<a class="tickerized-link" href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/tickers/lse-grg/">LSE: GRG</a>) share price. Having hit record highs at the end of 2021, this <strong>FTSE 250</strong> stock has crashed hard since. Meanwhile, the rest of the London stock market is scaling new peaks. So what went wrong for Greggs and its shareholders?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-greggs-does-great">Greggs does great</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs the Baker was founded by John Gregg in Newcastle upon Tyne in 1939. After the first shop opened in Gosforth in 1951, the bakery chain expanded rapidly. Today, Greggs is one of the UK&#8217;s leading &#8216;food-to-go&#8217; chains with over 2,600 outlets nationwide. For instance, even though I live in a tiny city in Hampshire, there are three Greggs shops in my area.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs sells a wide range of savoury foods (including its famous sausage rolls, steak bakes, and vegan sausage rolls), as well as sandwiches and hot and cold drinks. When I&#8217;m travelling in the UK, I often prefer the fast, affordable, and fresh food on offer at Greggs to its more expensive rivals. And being from the North East myself, I&#8217;m delighted to support this Geordie business.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Greggs shares floated on the London stock market in April 1984. Back then, the business had 260 shops and was valued at £15m. At its all-time high, the share price peaked at 3,443p on 31 December 2021, with the business worth nearly £3.5bn. In 2022, new CEO Roisin Currie took over and, alas, it&#8217;s been steeply downhill ever since.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-shares-slump">Shares slump</h2>


<div class="tmf-chart-singleseries" data-title="Greggs plc Price" data-ticker="LSE:GRG" data-range="5y" data-start-date="" data-end-date="" data-comparison-value=""></div>




<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As I write, this stock stands at 1,512.5p, valuing the group at just over £1.5bn. This leaves the share price down a shocking 56.1% from its end-2021 peak. In fairness, the shares went ex-dividend for 50p a share on Thursday, 30 April, which explains today&#8217;s 2.9% price decline.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For the record, my family portfolio owns Greggs stock, paying 1,696.7p a share for our stake last July. To date, we are sitting on a paper loss of 10.9%, but this excludes <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/how-shares-are-taxed-2/how-dividends-are-taxed/">dividends</a>. And as shareholders, we will receive the above 50p-a-share dividend on 29 May. Instead of spending this cash, we will use it to buy more Greggs shares. This boosts our shareholding and also our future returns.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">As for Greggs&#8217; troubles, four issues are out of its control. First, the cost-of-living crisis keeps pushing up input costs, forcing it to lift prices. Second, the growing use of GLP-1 diet drugs are slowing its sales. Third, higher employer National Insurance contributions are curbing profits. Fourth, adverse weather conditions were a problem in 2025.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-recovery-play">Recovery play?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For me, Greggs shares look undervalued and unloved today. The stock trades on 12.7 times trailing earnings, delivering an earnings yield nearing 7.9%. Thus, their generous dividend yield of almost 4.6% a year is covered 1.7 times by historic earnings.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Of course, this <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/investing-basics/understanding-the-market/what-is-the-ftse-250/">FTSE 250</a> stock could turn out to be a value trap, rather than a recovery play. But I see the odds tilted towards the former &#8212; especially as the group&#8217;s ambitious store roll-out continues and if/when sales growth strengthens. Hence, I am happy to sit tight and await the next trading update on 12 May!</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com/2026/04/30/down-36-in-5-years-will-the-greggs-share-price-ever-recover/">Down 36% in 5 years, will the Greggs share price ever recover?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://stage2026.twelfthmagpie.com">The Twelfth Magpie</a>.</p>
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