The FTSE 100 has outperformed US markets since President Trump took office. I’m sure not many people had that on their bingo cards. It might seem obvious today, but it wasn’t a few months back.
And on that point of uncertainty, it’s important to recognise that many of the post-pandemic consensus viewpoints have been wrong. Perhaps the biggest misforecast of them all was “inflation is transitory” — it wasn’t.
A major part of understanding where the index will be in six months will reflect the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Tariffs on the UK will be one factor, but it’s important to remember that the FTSE 100 is a truly global index.
The mining, oil, and even banking institutions that are heavily represented operate globally. In fact, I don’t believe any of the FTSE 100 mining companies are actively mining in the UK — Anglo American’s Woodsmith project is under development.
Here’s what ChatGPT said
Firstly, the artificial intelligence (AI) platform suggested that the future of the index is inherently uncertain. However, ChatGPT did provide me with two institutional forecasts and pointed to the index moving higher in the latter part of the year.
- Goldman Sachs’ revised forecasts: as of 1 April 2025, Goldman Sachs adjusted its 12-month forecast for the UK’s FTSE 100 index to 9,100 points, up from the previous estimate of 9,000 points.
- AJ Bell’s projections: investment platform AJ Bell has projected that the FTSE 100 could reach 9,000 points by the end of 2025.
However, the platform cautioned that these forecasts are subject to change based on various factors, including economic developments, geopolitical events, and shifts in investor sentiment. It added that while these analyses provide a general outlook, they should not be interpreted as definitive predictions.
A top performer
Unimpressed by ChatGPT’s answer, I pushed for more, asking it to predict the best performing stock over six months. Its answer was AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN). ChatGPT noted that AstraZeneca is projected to “gain 36% in value” according to Barclays, driven by its significant advancements in cancer drug development and upcoming trial results.
AstraZeneca could indeed be a standout performer in the FTSE 100 over the next six months. The company has made significant strides in oncology, with recent FDA approvals and a robust pipeline of new medicines. And analysts are optimistic, with a consensus recommendation leaning heavily towards Buy and Outperform ratings. The company’s strong financial performance, including a 21% revenue increase in 2024, further supports its potential.
However, risks remain. AstraZeneca must navigate competitive pressures in oncology and manage regulatory challenges. Additionally, achieving its ambitious revenue targets will require flawless execution and continued innovation. What’s more, Trump’s tariffs could present challenges.
Despite these possible speed bumps, AstraZeneca’s strong pipeline and growth prospects make it an attractive choice for investors looking for potential in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s something I’ve genuinely been considering buying more of.
