It’s almost impossible not to have some exposure to tariffs and geopolitical risks inside a diversified Stocks and Shares ISA. I’ve been looking through my own portfolio to assess — as best as I can — which stocks are more at risk than others.
High exposure
I have a handful of shares I would say are certainly higher risk. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — or TSMC as it’s known — is the world’s leading chipmaker, putting it at the epicentre of the global semiconductor supply chain.
It manufactures chips for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Apple, Qualcomm, and many more. For now, TSMC says it isn’t seeing any slowdown in demand, with robust demand for AI chips offsetting softness elsewhere. But the complex web of ever-changing compliance and trade policies is obviously a major headache.
The firm says it cannot fully prevent AI chips it manufactures indirectly reaching China. That’s unlikely to stop the US trying to prevent all moderately advanced chips ending up there.
For those interested in a deeper understanding, I highly recommend Chris Miller’s book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology.
Anyway, TSMC stock looks very cheap again — it’s trading at just 12.3 times 2026’s forecast earnings! At that price, I’m hoping most of the risk (and more) is already priced in.
More semiconductor exposure
Elsewhere, Nvidia is increasingly at the sharp end of things. It expects to take a $5.5bn hit in its current first quarter after export restrictions to China for its H20 AI chips were announced.
This is a stock I reintroduced into my portfolio near the start of April. But I wasn’t naïve to the risks. On 28 March, I wrote: “I’m expecting further market volatility due to tariffs and worries about restricted Nvidia chip sales to China.”
Again, Nvidia stock will likely be volatile until there’s more clarity over global trade. But its largest (US) customers remain committed to heavy investments in AI.
Moderate and low exposure
For the rest of my portfolio, the risks vary on a company-by-company basis. Take Ferrari, which is directly impacted by US auto tariffs and potential exposure to duties on Europe-made cars in China. However, the Italian automaker has insane pricing power that it can flex to offset these.
At the opposite end, language learning app Duolingo appears to have low risk. It’s a digital-only platform with minimal exposure to physical supply chains or international tariffs.
Naturally, there are second- and even third-order effects from all of this. A global economic downturn — now a distinct possibility — would be bad for both consumers and companies (including Uber and Visa).
Here are some others.
| Company | Risk Level | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Axon Enterprise | ? Low | US-based manufacturing, mainly domestic customers. |
| MercadoLibre | ? Moderate | Latin American e-commerce; indirect exposure via merchants sourcing from China. |
| Visa | ? Low | Digital payments not subject to tariffs, but reduced cross-border transaction risk. |
| Intuitive Surgical | ? Moderate | Robotics firm with many of its instruments made in Mexico. |
| Shopify | ? Moderate | E-commerce platform is digital, but many merchants rely on Asia for inventory. |
| Uber | ? Low | Primarily service-based (mobility, food delivery). |
| HSBC | ? Moderate | Major exposure to China; sensitive to Asia and financial trade tensions. |
| Games Workshop | ? Moderate | UK-based manufacturer; potential cost risk from tariffs. |
| CrowdStrike | ? Low | Pure cybersecurity software firm. |
| AstraZeneca | ? Moderate | Global pharma giant with operations in China; possible tariff exposure. |
My takeaway
Now, I should end by saying that I currently have no intention of selling any of these stocks due to fear of the unknown. But I am expecting a lot more volatility in the months ahead as companies pull guidance and adjust expectations.
By understanding the tariff and trade risks around my investments, I’m less likely to be totally caught off guard by nasty surprises. It will also help me decide whether any sell-off is overblown and there’s a buying opportunity.
