Barclays‘ (LSE: BARC) shares remained relatively flat as market’s opened this week, despite positive news. On Monday (27 April), Barclays completed a buyback and cancellation of 26,765,000 shares.
The buyback’s another clear sign that management wants to reward investors and support the share price over time. The slight decrease in overall share count should help to boost the value of each individual share.
But the market has yet to react significantly.
What the buyback might mean
This latest move is part of a much bigger capital‑return plan. Barclays has already been running share buyback programmes worth up to £1.5bn in total since 2025, with all repurchased shares cancelled rather than held in treasury.
This is explicitly to reduce its share capital. In 2025 alone, it returned £3.7bn to investors through dividends and buybacks.
In theory, fewer shares mean higher earnings per share, which can support the price over the long run if profits hold up. In practice though, the share price will still jump around with the economic outlook and wider market mood.
Macro factors — like the war in Iran — could negate any positive impact from the buybacks. So where do anlysts think the share price is heading?
Looking ahead
Broker forecasts are generally constructive. Seventeen analysts following Barclays have a one‑year median price target of 541p, about 24% above a recent price of 437p. They also expect a growing dividend stream on top, with a forecast yield of 3.3% for 2026 rising to 3.97% in 2027.
Some valuation models suggest the shares still trade well below estimated fair value. However, a few brokers still give the stock a Hold rating rather than a screaming Buy. So while expectations are generally positive, they’re not euphoric.
Barclays by numbers
Recent results show why the board feels confident enough to keep handing back cash. In 2025, Barclays generated income of about £29.1bn and profit before tax of £9.1bn, lifting its return on tangible equity to 11.3%.
The common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at 14.3%, comfortably within its target range, even after allowing for a large buyback.
Key points for investors include:
- Total 2025 capital returns of £3.7bn, combining dividends of 8.6p per share with £2.5bn of buybacks.
- A plan to return at least £10bn between 2024 and 2026 and more than £15bn between 2026 and 2028.
- Management targets group return on tangible equity (RoTE) above 14% by 2028 if the strategy goes to plan.
On the flip side, if a market downturn sparks loan losses, profits could be hit. Regulatory changes such as Basel 3.1 also add risk, and geopolitical shocks could hurt credit quality, squeezing margins.
What does this mean for investors?
For existing shareholders, these buybacks are certainly relevant. They signal confidence, support earnings, and could ultimately help close the gap between the share price and underlying value.
For new investors, Barclays still looks like a possible contender for a long‑term portfolio – but only if you’re comfortable with bank sector ups and downs and short‑term volatility.
Still, that mix of income, buybacks and potential re‑rating are certainly attractive.
