With the sun shining down on much of the UK in recent days, many people’s minds may have turned to ice cream. So it seems fitting that Magnum Ice Cream Company (LSE: MICC) delivered a trading statement today (30 April) that has seen its share price rise by 11% as I write on Thursday afternoon.
That sort of jump can sometimes suggest that investors had perhaps previously not been properly valuing a company’s prospects.
Could that be the case here?
More ice cream but less lolly!
In fact, the update may seem a bit paradoxical.
Sales revenues and sales volumes at the global ice cream giant both grew organically. But the company actually reported a slightly lower revenue for the three-month period in question than for the same quarter the prior year.
Magnum’s global reach helps to explain that discrepancy. It suffered from foreign exchange movements that means that, while sales revenues may have grown in local currency, they shrunk when translated into the company’s reporting currency (euros).
Investors are eating it up
So, what lies behind today’s share price rise for the Magnum Ice Cream company?
It is still a relatively young business as a standalone company since being demerged from Unilever last year.
I think investors are still trying to figure out what the company’s prospects are and what sort of valuation it might deserve.
In reality, today’s trading update was not spectacular. There was nothing in it that made me think Magnum has massive growth opportunities I had not previously appreciated (though high-protein, low-fat Yasso pints could yet be the sort of on-trend innovation that can potentially help build sales strongly, I reckon).
But what it did show was a business with strong brands performing fairly well, with ongoing long-term growth prospects.
Could this offer long-term value?
Part of the thinking in listing Magnum as an independent business was that it might benefit from a more clearly focused investment case.That could potentially beat being nestled in with the rest of Unilever’s product portfollo.
The company said that, even though the Middle Eastern conflict poses risks to input costs, it expects adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) to grow.
It also foresees organic sales growth of 3%-5% for the year. Exchange rate fluctuations could negatively affect that when converted into euros, though.
Rising input costs could potentially be more of a problem over time too, depending on what gnarled supply chains might mean for ingredient costs.
But Magnum has a lot of positives.
It has grown the number of points of sale worldwide that carry its products. Expansion in the US discount sector could help offset the potentially negative impact of weakening consumer confidence (although I’m concerned about the possible risk to profit margins involved).
The company has a strong portfolio of brands beyond its eponymous one and an excellent global distribution network.
From a long-term perspective, I think the current share price could offer value and see this as a share worth considering.
