Despite the Iran conflict, we still haven’t seen a stock market crash. Is that about to change? Nobody really knows.
The FTSE 100 has been volatile but overall it’s climbed 4.15% so far in 2026. Over 12 months, it’s up an impressive 20.5%. With dividends reinvested, the total return nears 25%. Yet investors remain tense and understandably so.
The world faces the biggest oil shock in history, according to the International Energy Agency. If the Strait of Hormuz tanker route remains closed, Macquarie Group warns oil could hit $200 by the summer. It’s a Bank Holiday today (4 May), and the UK market is closed. What can we expect when it reopens tomorrow? It coudl go down, up or not do much at all. But the thing is, I’m not worried whatever it does.
What will I do in a meltdown?
Brent crude peaked at $124 a barrel last week. Today, it’s down to $109. Sentiment has been boosted by Donald Trump’s pledge that the US will guide ships through Hormuz. He also said talks with Iran have been “very positive” and could lead to broader de-escalation. If that holds, the FTSE 100 could jump tomorrow. But a fresh setback could trigger the long-feared crash. It’s hanging in the balance.
Second-guessing market movements is pointless though. Instead, I’m targeting buying opportunities as they emerge. And I can see plenty of compelling buys both in the event of a meltdown and today when one hasn’t actually happened. One of them is FTSE 100-listed private equity firm 3i Group (LSE: III).
The investment trust has a track record stretching back to 1946, when it was set up to help small and medium-sized British businesses secure long-term capital for reconstruction and expansion. Today, 3i takes controlling states in mid-market companies, managing them to generate sustainable growth and returns for shareholders.
One company has done so well it’s now worth 70% of 3i’s entire portfolio. Non-food discount retailer Action is growing rapidly in Europe, expanding steadily and managing thousands of stores. In 2025, net sales climbed another 16.1% to €16bn. Now 3i is gearing up to crack the US, which would take it to a different level.
Ready for a big recovery?
Despite Action’s stellar success, 3i shares have fallen 22% in the last three months, and 40% over the year. Personally, I think they rose too far, too fast. Action’s sales growth has to slow at some point. Many investors may also be wary of US expansion plans, as it’s a tough market to crack.
3i has also been hit by wider stock market uncertainty. The stock tends to fall faster than the index on bad days, and climb faster on good ones. But here’s the exciting bit, in my view. The investment trust now trades at a 15.8% discount to the underlying value of its net assets. For years, it traded at a premium. I think it’s well worth considering for investors up for the challenge. I’ve taken advantage of recent dips to buy more myself. So have 3i’s directors.
History shows that even if we do get an outright crash, it won’t last forever. Whatever happens next week, I’ll be watching closely to see which shares emerge as the best bargains.
