Vistry Group (LSE:VTY) is one of the FTSE 250‘s worst-performing shares of 2026. It’s collapsed 55% in value in the year to date, having slumped another 12% today (13 May).
Like those of other housebuilding stocks, the Iran War has pushed Vistry’s share price sharply lower. Valuations have dropped as the conflict drives up inflation and slows homebuyer acvitity. But has the stock market overreacted?
Not if Vistry’s trading update is anything to go by…
So what’s Vistry said?
Markets hate uncertainty. So investors have reacted badly to Vistry’s advice that in the last two months
the level of macro-economic uncertainty has increased, and with it the range of potential outcomes for the current year.
What it did predict is that it expects H1 profit “to be significantly lower than the prior year.” In better news, performance in H2 is tipped to match that of the same period in 2025, thanks to better margins on active sites and rising demand from the firm’s affordable housing partners.
The company now expects adjusted pre-tax profit for the full year to come in around the middle of the range of analysts’ forecasts. These currently sit at £168m to £283m. Profits were £268.8m in 2025.
What about sales rates?
Vistry said its open market sales rate is up 32% since 1 January (at 1.2 versus 0.91 last year). However, it’s also seen “some moderation in recent weeks reflecting uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict,” it noted, prompting it to introduce more incentives and discounts for buyers, particularly on low-margin sites.
Vistry’s forward order book is £4.5bn, down from £4.6bn at the same point in 2025.
It’s not just sales rates that are under pressure as buyer caution and mortgage products becoming more expensive. Building material and labour costs are also rising, which Vistry has noted recently and expects to continue into H2.
It’s no surprise that the shares have plummeted again. The company now trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.3 times. But I’m wondering: could now be an attractive dip-buying opportunity?
A FTSE 250 bargain?
I’m not expecting things to get better any time soon. Things could in fact get much worse. Yet I’m optimistic Vistry’s share price will recover strongly over time. And for long-term investors, now might be a good time to consider opening a position.
It’s also important to think about how cheap the share now is. That P/E of 7.3 is miles below the 10-year average of 14–15. What’s more, Vistry’s price-to-book (P/B) value of 0.3 shows the company trading at a massive discount to its balance sheet assets.
It makes me believe that — for patient investors at least — it might be one of the best value shares to consider right now. Long term, the outlook for the housing market remains robust, driven by the UK’s booming population. And the company has a new chief executive, Adam Daniels, to help it seize this opportunity. Just remember there could be some more bumps along the way.
