Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) shares have given investors a thrilling ride. Over five years, they’re up 1,033%, turning £10,000 into a stunning £113,300. No wonder investors love this stock. But can it give them a reason to keep on loving it?
I’d say the answer’s yes, but in a different way.
Anybody buying Rolls-Royce today has to accept the shares aren’t going to rise another 1,033% in the next five years. This is now a £100bn company, so that would turn it a massive £1.1trn enterprise. Today, the FTSE 100 is only worth £2.5trn in total.
Can this FTSE 100 stock climb higher still?
Any investor considering Rolls-Royce shares therefore must accept the growth must slow. CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç has worked wonders since January 2023, but the group’s stellar post-pandemic rebound has run its course. Over one year, the shares are still up an impressive 55%. But they’ve edged up just 5% in the last six months. And fallen 4% in the last month. The trend’s clear.
I can see why investors would consider taking profits today. Especially if they got in early, and Rolls-Royce makes up a big chunk of their overall portfolio. Some investors set a rule of never putting more than 5% or 10% in any one stock. That’s wise. Yet I still think it’s worth retaining exposure to Rolls-Royce.
This is still a brilliant British company with long-term growth opportunities across all three of its divisions – civil aerospace, defence and power systems.
Three reasons to consider buying
- Rolls-Royce can still roar. In 2025, it posted a 40% increase in underlying operating profit to £3.5bn. Highlights included a strong turnaround in civil airspace, booming demand for data centre power and continued high defence spending.
- Nuclear power offers a huge opportunity. Its small modular reactors (or mini-nukes), are attracting interest from the UK, Czech Republic, Sweden and beyond.
- Investors won’t just get growth. The board recently announced share buybacks of £7bn to £9bn in total between 2026 and 2028. There are dividends too, although the forecast yield is a modest 1%.
Three reasons to be cautious
- Rolls-Royce shares are expensive. Today, the price-to-earnings ratio is 41. That’s down from more than 65 just a few months back, but is still well above the FTSE 100 average of around 15.
- There’s little room for error. After all the excitement, any slight miss in future profits or earnings could be heavily punished.
- The Iran war is a risk, as Middle East travel hubs close and jet fuel shortages loom. This threatens civil aerospace revenues, where lucrative maintenance contracts are based on miles flown. A wider recession would be an issue too.
I still think Rolls-Royce has a role to play in a balanced portfolio. However, investors will have to get their rewards from a combination of steady growth, dividends and buybacks over the years. Anybody wanting a more jazzy recovery play should consider looking elsewhere. The next Rolls-Royce is out there. I’m determined to find it.
