The first rule of predicting a stock market crash is never, ever predict a stock market crash. Why? Because they’re entirely unpredictable.
As the world faces the biggest energy shock in its history, I’d have expected global share prices to have gone into meltdown weeks ago. But they haven’t. So why are the FTSE 100 and other indexes holding firm?
Share prices have certainly been volatile. But the UK’s blue-chip index is still up 3.75% so far this year, and 20% over 12 months. I think that’s pretty solid, given the scale of the threat.
So why haven’t share prices tumbled?
Just a few months ago, oil traded at around $60. Today, a barrel of Brent crude costs $107. In the past, dramatic shifts like that have triggered recessions and worse. Yet every time markets dip, they quickly recover. Investors have shown their resilience lately, shrugging off Covid, Ukraine, US tariffs and now war in Iran. They’re holding the line today even with the crucial Strait of Hormuz oil supply route still closed.
So far, we’ve avoided oil shortages in the West, by drawing down inventories and strategic reserves. But we can’t do this forever. If supply tightens, the market crash could still come, and I’ll be watching closely, waiting for a buying opportunity. But there’s one thing investors can do today.
And that’s to scour the FTSE 100 for top UK stocks that have taken a beating lately, and offer lower valuations and higher yields as a result. These five have been hit hard over the last three months.
| Stock | 3 months | 1 year | 5 years |
| Babcock | -27.6% | 21.3% | 243.5% |
| Weir Group | -28.2% | 1.5% | 28.9% |
| 3i Group | -28.4% | -41.4% | 100.3% |
| Reckitt | -28.5% | -5.3% | -26.9% |
| Barratt Redrow | -34.6% | -45.2% | -66.5% |
I’ll be exploring all of these opportunities in the days ahead but right now I’m particularly intrigued by 3i Group (LSE: III) because I hold it. In fact, until recently, it was a portfolio star, having doubled my money in just over two years.
Can this FTSE 100 stock make a stellar recovery?
3i is a private equity specialist with a track record dating back to 1946. Lately, it’s been the vehicle for a single staggeringly successful holding, European non-food discount retailer Action. The chain now boasts more than 3,300 stores across Europe, attracting 2.6m customers every week.
Action’s sales grew another 16.1% to €16bn in 2025 but investors were starting to get nervous even before recent geopolitical uncertainty, fearing it would struggle to maintain its breakneck growth. Investors were in two minds over plans to move into the US, a famously tough market to crack.
But here’s why I’m highlighting it now. Before the sell-off, the investment trust was trading at a massive premium of 29% to underlying net asset value. Today, investors can buy it at a 15% discount. Also, the dividend yield has crept above 3%. 3i directors have been pouring their own money into the stock. I’ve taken advantage of recent dips too.
If markets do crash, 3i Group shares could fall even further, but I think they’re well worth considering today. Let’s see what summer brings. Will you be joining me in monitoring 3i’s progress?
